It was a hell of a night; not so great for your's truly. As has been a bit of a trend lately, my fight picks are relatively good, but the guys I root for don't fare so well. I guess that's what happens when so many of the guys I like turn out to be underdogs (at least in my opinion). Let's get to it. This might be lengthy.
Cain Velasquez def. Brock Lesnar (c) via TKO (punches), Rd 1
Prediction: Cain's technical advantage, wrestling, and tireless work ethic would carry him to a come from behind late TKO or decision victory.
What happened: The first part was correct, but it sure didn't go into the championship rounds, or even the first. Cain dominated Brock en route to a late 1st round TKO.
Thoughts: I was rooting for Brock, though I knew it'd be in vain. When Cain defeated Nogueira, I knew he'd be a decent threat to Brock. When I saw how Brock was handled in the first round of his fight with Shane Carwin, I was downright nervous of his chances against Cain. I admit I thought Cain lacked punching power before the Nog fight. I don't think I was wrong, but improving technique can go a long way in improving it, and that's exactly what happened with Cain in my opinion. This brought me to the conclusion that Cain had a good chance of putting Brock on his heels with strikes, but not gassing himself out like Carwin did. That, coupled with Brock's wrestling advantage being possibly overstated, led to a pretty dire feeling about Brock's chances. What I didn't count on was him losing so badly.
It's easy for people behind a keyboard to sit back and declare Brock overrated garbage who was never any good to begin with. After being a fan of the sport for so many years I can only expect it. But there are a few things to consider: Brock's lucrative contract meant he had to be thrown into the deep end (nobody wants to see a big draw fight cans they couldn't care less about, regardless of his skill level). He made his UFC debut (and career fight) against a dangerous former UFC champion, and although he lost, he looked very impressive in doing so. Ever since then he's faced nothing but highly regarded guys, champs, and former champs. It's not an ideal environment for building your career, and most men would fail horribly where Lesnar succeeded. So now he's trash after being handily beaten by a fighter who was groomed much more carefully and thoroughly than himself? I don't think so. Brock is only 3 years into his MMA career; 2 if you don't count his debut against Min Soo Kim (most don't). His stature, competitive spirit, and notoriety caused him to bear an immense and unrealistic amount of expectations. Many fighters lose badly and return only to return with a vengeance and become even bigger superstars; maybe now is Brock's turn.
Next for Velasquez: Junior dos Santos, and one hell of a title fight.
Next for Lesnar: I've heard possibilities of a rubber match with Mir, but I personally don't want to see that too much. A solid gatekeeper like Gabriel Gonzaga or Ben Rothwell would be a good tune up for him, without throwing him too far down the chain.
Jake Shields def. Martin Kampmann via Decision (split), Rd 3
Prediction: Kampmann is a very solid and well rounded welterweight, and would keep the fight very competitive, but he wouldn't be able to stop Shields from taking him down and riding out the Jake Shields special: a boring unanimous decision.
What happened: Shields gassed and looked horrible, Kampmann stayed timid on the feet and active on the ground, which led to a watered down Shields special: a less boring (because of Kampmann) split decision.
Thoughts: Shields looked terrible, which was likely due to a tough weight cut. He reportedly cut 20 lbs in a day, which is dumb when you lack finishing ability. Kampmann didn't make it easy for him, but is drawing some criticism for not turning up the heat more on the feet. I don't find the criticism completely valid, as getting to aggressive could lure him right into Shields' takedown trap, even if he is gassed. Kampman put on a good fight, but as usual Shields did enough to technically win the fight. With that said, I'm sick of Shields and his style, and as biased as it may sound I can't wait till he gets handled. His striking is terrible, and for having such a vaunted submission game he has great trouble finishing opponents as of late, which results in his opponents coming out of fights looking like they just came back from a morning jog. Jake Shields is lucky his fights are judged using the 10 point must system, because he does zero damage. He's the only fighter I can think of where I don't get too nervous for his opponent when he has them mounted, and that's really saying something.
Next for Shields: GSP, although based on this performance he doesn't at all deserve a shot.
Next for Kampmann: He was a bit timid, but still looked good in losing. Perhaps that rematch with Carlos Condit is in order, or if that appears to be too much a step up, he can take on Dan Hardy, Chris Lytle, or John Hathaway.
Diego Sanchez def. Paulo Thiago via Decision (unanimous), Rd 3
Prediction: Diego will be a game opponent as always, and bring energy and determination to the bout, but he wouldn't be able to overcome Thiago's slick ground game and hard-nosed toughness en route to a decision loss.
What happened: In a return to form thanks to Greg Jackson, Sanchez overcame a tough but competitive first round, and from then on he was one step ahead of Thiago the whole way. He shut down Thiago's offense with his wrestling and tired him out by making him work constantly, and took home a clear-cut decision.
Thoughts: Just when I thought Diego was signing his death warrant at 170 when he agreed to face the super tough Thiago, he pulls off a career defining performance and shows us the dominance that made him a force after he won the first season of The Ultimate Fighter. His talk of moving down to 155 after this fight almost seemed like an admission that the fight may prove he didn't belong at 170, but if anything he made me want to see him stay there a little longer.
Next for Sanchez: This fight did breathe new life into his possibilities at 170, but I still believe that he only has a chance at going far if he goes back to 155. If he stays there are plenty of fights for him against the likes of Mike Pyle, Chris Lytle, Jake Ellenberger or Martin Kampmann. IF he goes back to 155 there is still no shortage of opponents, as he could face Sean Sherk, rematch Kenny Florian, or take on Takanori Gomi should he get by Clay Guida.
Next for Thiago: Thiago is tough as nails and keeps things competitive the whole way through, but can't seem to crack those in the upper echelon of the division (see: wrestlers). If they really want to test him further in that area they should give him Mike Pierce, or they could pit him against John Hathaway as another stern test for the both of them.
Matt Hamill def. Tito Ortiz via Decision (unanimous), Rd 3
Prediction: Hamill is in his prime and Ortiz is far past his own. Youth trumps experience and Hamill outstrikes and outwrestles Ortiz to a clear-cut decision.
What happened: Exactly that.
Thoughts: Ortiz looked better in the first round than he has looked in years, but it just wasn't enough for a younger, healthier Hamill. Once Matt remembered he could wrestle, he took Ortiz down at will and beat him at his own game; something we've never seen done in Ortiz's career. As the fight wore on Ortiz slowed down and Hamill looked even more comfortable standing up, tagging Tito with jabs and straight punches. Ortiz's claims that he was healthy appear to be more or less accurate, but this fight proved that may just be a gatekeeper at best after all.
Next for Hamill: Dana says he wants Hamill to fight a top 10 guy next, and I find it hard to disagree with that. I hate that Minotoro Nogueira keeps getting wrestlers thrown at him, but at this point Hamill/Nogueira for a spot in the top 10 makes a lot of sense.
Next for Ortiz: In my eyes Ortiz is done beating any 205er above mid-level. He's still got the drive, but the game has definitely passed him up. I would like to see him get one last crack at Chuck Lidell, as was originally promised at the end of TUF 11, but I doubt it'll ever happen. If they decide to keep him around he should be put against someone in a similar position as himself. A fading Cyrille Diabate could prove whether or not Tito has lost all relevance.
Brendan Schaub def. Gabriel Gonzaga via Decision (unanimous), Rd 3
Prediction: Gonzaga could try and impose what he's good at on Schaub (his BJJ), but he won't because he thinks he's a striker. It would lead to him trying his luck on the feet too long and getting TKO'd in the second round.
What happened: Pretty much exactly what was predicted (which is sad....get with the program, Gabe) except Schaub couldn't finish him off and took an uneventful but clear decision.
Thoughts: Schaub didn't really impress me too much, which made me raise an eyebrow when it appeared that Sherdog writers applauded his performance. He didn't look bad out there by any means, but the fight was definitely underwhelming. Gonzaga couldn't muster up any good offense and Schaub couldn't connect with much of significance. Gonzaga still thinks he can stand with everyone, as evidenced by two half-assed takedowns comprising his only attempts to get the fight to the ground. The only moment of brilliance he had in the entire fight was in the last few seconds of the final round where he sprawled a takedown attempt fom Schaub and quickly took his back. Had it happened seconds earlier in the fight Gonzaga may have secured a choke, but oh well.
Next for Schaub: Mediocre performance or not (does outstriking Gonzaga really mean all that much?) he proved that he's ready for a good step up. Maybe that Frank Mir fight he asked for isn't a bad fight to make. Alternatively, he could take on the last man Mir beat, Mirko Cro Cop, or even Chieck Kongo.
Next for Gonzaga: I'm somewhat surprised it's not walking papers (he's lost 3 of his last 4; and 5 of his last 8), but I still beleive Gonzaga can actually do some quality things in the octagon if he just remembers that he's pretty darn good at BJJ. It's almost like he goes into every fight thinking "I'm a great striker, I knocked out Cro Cop with a head kick!" It's a clear case of low fight IQ. If he wants to strike with someone that he may be able to take down once the going gets tough, give him Ben Rothwell, but I'd imagine his next fight is a must-win.
Prelims
- John Madsen finally did what he needed to do: win a fight without being boring as hell. He did it in the form of an explosive takedown followed by some rabid ground and pound. Sadly (for me), it was at the expense of Gilbert Yvel, who I'm sure will be getting the pink slip any minute now. After years of being exciting and one dimensional, Yvel has digressed further to being just one dimensional. I hope Madsen gets someone who can stop takedowns next.
- Chris Camozzi took a split decision over debuting Korean standout Dongi Yang. The decision was very unpopular with the fans, and with me. Yang landed more significantly and more often until slowing down in the 3rd, and 29-28 Yang seemed clear as day to everyone but the judges. Definitely shades of the Leonard Garcia decision win over Chan Sung Jung. Am I sensing a trend here? Korean Top Team fighters may need to stay away from Zuffa.
- Michael Guymon was bullied down and anaconda choked into submission in front of his family and friends by Daniel Roberts in a little over a minute. Tough break for Guymon, but Roberts may be one to look out for at 170, though his Cesar Gracie compatriot, Jake Shields, also resides there.
- In a loser leaves town matchup, Tom Lawlor showed longtime UFC fighter and TUF runner up Patrick Cote the door, as he shut down his potent striking with takedowns and ground and pound to take a dominant decision. It wasn't terribly eventful but Cote had nothing for Lawlor, and after three straight losses he'll have to fight elsewhere as the UFC sent him packing.
- Court McGee overcame a slow first round that saw Ryan Jensen really turn up the heat, and dominated the second round en route to sinking in an arm triangle choke early in the third round. McGee looked awkward on the feet early while Jensen looked to be in top form; however, Jensen slowed noticeably in the second and the tireless McGee took full advantage of it.
- Sam Stout's split decision victory over Paul Taylor was the only fight on the card that I missed, and I'm sure it was a wild affair. Apparently the decision was not popular at all, which was surprising to see since I thought Stout's precise and technical (but powerless) striking would lead to him clearly outpointing Kelly. Score another one for bad judging.
And that'll do it for the UFC 121 recap. I'm glad I finally got it out. Power outages and random business kept me from finishing it, as I actually started typing it Sunday night. But I guess these things happen. More to come later on.
