Alistair Overeem def. Brock Lesnar via TKO (Liver Kick and Punches), Rd 1
What Happened: Lesnar threw out his usual plan of bull rushing at the bell in favor of a more calculated approach, but it was all for naught. After stuffing an early takedown, Overeem proceeded to walk Lesnar down, throwing punches and tagging him in the process with hard knees to the body. A well-placed body kick spelled the end for Lesnar, as he collapsed against the cage and covered up as Overeem rained punches. Most of them were blocked, but the end was academic; Lesnar was done.
Thoughts: I went back and forth on picking for this fight because of the multitude of variables involved. Aside from the typical "anything can happen when heavyweights get in there" factor, there was Lesnar's 14 month layoff and his bout with diverticulitis, as well as Overeem's lackluster last showing against Fabricio Werdum and his recent drama with the NSAC. In the end I settled on Overeem by TKO, and by fight time I felt confident in that choice. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Lesnar's MMA wrestling is overrated. Guys like Jon Fitch, Cain Velasquez, Cole Konrad, Chael Sonnen, Jacob Volkmann, etc are very successful with their wrestling because the are relentless in the pursuit of a takedown. If you stuff one, they'll transition to another and pressure you the whole time. Lesnar is in the same boat as guys like Mark Munoz and Johny Hendricks in that they tend to give up after they are initially stuffed and back up. This is why they struggle working a wrestling-centric top control game. The difference with Lesnar is that unlike a Munoz or Hendricks, he doesn't have the striking skill offense or defense to make up for it. If he can't take someone down quickly, he gets hit; and when he gets hit, he doesn't react well. Once Overeem easily stuffed him and hit him with that first body shot Lesnar looked lost and hopeless, and I knew it was just a matter of time because Lesnar wasn't going to really push the pace and make the fight ugly.
Next for Overeem: Junior dos Santos for the title. Overeem made a bold statement in disposing of Lesnar and making it look easy. Overeem is one of the best strikers at heavyweight, and this upcoming title fight will likely settle the question of who the best striker in the division really is.
Next for Lesnar: Sitting on the couch in his huge ranch laughing at all the haters who view his MMA stint as a failure when he did in 7 fights what most guys won't do in their entire careers, and made millions doing it. He may not have earned his initial title shot, and he may have trouble taking a hit, but Lesnar chose to take the hardest possible road in this sport and did pretty damn well considering he came into the game late and with wrestling as his sole skill. The man deserves respect.
Nate Diaz def. Donald Cerrone via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: It was a slugfest, and Diaz's boxing proved superior. He landed punches in high volume at will, and although Cerrone had some success with leg and body kicks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, he couldn't do enough to avoid a lopsided decision loss.
Thoughts: This was considered an upset and I'm not entirely sure why. I picked Cerrone along with most people, but I couldn't believe so many were writing Diaz off. I might write him off against a great wrestler, but not a striker. Now although I acknowledge that Diaz is looking more and more like his brother with each fight (which is a very good thing), something seemed very off with Cerrone. Though he's not usually a paragon of striking defense, this time around he seemed to just allow Diaz to hit him constantly. Cerrone has always had a habit that I didn't like: he tends to close the distance by just walking into his opponents instead of moving in quickly. Thus far it has done him well (I usually cringe a little when he does it), but against someone he didn't have such a height and reach advantage over it proved to be part of his undoing. There were several occasions where he walked right up to Diaz to close the distance and took 3 and 4 punch combinations right to the face. Overall, it was just a bad performance for Cerrone, and a great one for Nate. Still not a fan of Nate or his brother, but I can't deny that they are great at what they do.
Next for Diaz: It's about time he starts getting mentioned in the title conversation. He should fight the winner of Anthony Pettis vs Joe Lauzon, in what could possibly be a title eliminator.
Next for Cerrone: Taking 5 fights in 10 months may have just been too much for Cerrone, but I think he should come back stronger. The loser of the aforementioned Pettis vs Lauzon fight, or perhaps that beef he has with Cole miller should finally come to a head.
Johny Hendricks def. Jon Fitch via KO (Punch), Rd 1
What Happened: It only took 12 seconds, so not much. Fitch let his guard down and caught a thunderous left hand which had him out immediately. Fitch took another bomb and immediately sought to recover and look for a tie-up, but he was done.
Thoughts: Not much to say about the fight itself, but this is bound to happen when you've had as much success as Fitch. MMA is unpredictable and anyone can get caught; you just have to get to the top before that happens. It's difficult for guys like him (unmarketable for title shots) because they have to win more fights to get another shot at the belt. Fitch's 5-0-1 record since his last title bid would be more than enough for a marketable contender to get another shot, but instead he had to keep fighting, and like anyone else it was a matter of time before he lost. I thought Hendricks had a decent style for stifling Fitch's game, but this was a huge upset.
Next for Hendricks: He has catapulted himself to the contender's list with this emphatic win. He could face the winner of Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez in a title eliminator. If that winner is catapulted to a title shot Hendricks could fight the Josh Koscheck, provided he gets past Mike Pierce in February.
Next for Fitch: Anyone can get caught, and this loss doesn't take away from the fact that Fitch is an amazing 13-2-1 in the UFC. He is still a major player in the division. He should take on the loser of Sanchez vs Ellenberger, Martin Kampmann should he fall to Thiago Alves, or even the loser of the upcoming interim title fight between Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit.
Alexander Gustafsson def. Vladimir Matyushenko via TKO (punches), Rd 1
What Happened: Gustafsson made short work of Matyushenko dropping him with a jab as Matyushenko jumped in sloppily with a strike of his own, and sealing the deal with punches on the turtling veteran.
Thoughts: Gustafsson is looking more and more like the prospect to watch at 205. Matyushenko made a quick but glaring mistake and Gustafsson capitalized on it big time. It seems Matyushenko became a little too comfortable with how well he has been doing in the striking department and his carelessness really cost him in this bout, similar to Mark Hominick's blunder against Chan Sung Jung. Gustafsson is showing smooth striking, and with his ever evolving grappling game he could be a force to be reckoned with in the near future.
Next for Gustafsson: Gustafsson is arguably the top prospect in the UFC that has not been booked in a high profile fight, so I think the UFC should take care in how they match him up. They rushed Jon Jones and he ran away with it; we will soon see how Phil Davis does; and I think Gustafsson has at least a couple fights left before going high profile. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira seems to be viewed as a gauge for up and comers, and if that doesn't work out then Brandon Vera might make a great next fight for him.
Next for Matyushenko: One of the premier veterans at 205, it's clear he won't make a run at the title but he can still serve as a stern test for any prospect. A respectable 4-2 in his recent UFC run, his only losses have come to the current champ and Gustafsson, and he has looked very impressive in his wins. Kyle Kingsbury or Krzysztof Soszynski could be next for "the Janitor."
Jimy Hettes def. Nam Phan via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: From bell to bell Hettes completely dominated Phan, taking him down almost at will, landing hard punches from the top, and threatening with submissions. Phan simply had nothing for him and couldn't muster any meaningful offense on the feet.
Thoughts: Nam Phan is a blackbelt? A purplebelt, Hettes made him look more like a "blechbelt." Hettes was my underdog pick for this fight, but I had no clue he would dominate Phan so thoroughly (although I've thought Phan was overrate since even before he fought in the UFC; it was the basis for picking Hettes over him). He's utterly relentless in his pursuit of takedowns, he's got great timing for judo throws and sweep takedowns, his ground and pound is nasty, and his overall grappling is very solid. And he's only 24. Watch out for this kid.
Next for Hettes: Hettes has risen as a great new prospect at 145, and should be built up carefully. Sherdog.com suggested the winner of Jonathan Brookins vs Rahni Yahya, and I think that would be a good choice, as it would be a steady increase in competition and either would provide for entertaining grappling.
Next for Phan: Just 1-3 in the UFC, it wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if Phan was served his walking papers, but I don't really expect it. This latest loss was only decisive one, as he was outright robbed in his UFC debut against Leonard Garcia and fought to a very close decision with Mike Brown. If he gets another chance in the Octagon they might put him in with Josh Grispi in a loser leaves town fight.
Prelim Notes
- Ross Pearson took a decision over Junior Assuncao that was apparently not as close as I made it out to be. I feared Assuncao might squeak by on the scorecards (I scored it 29-28 Pearson) from scoring ineffectual takedowns and clinching a lot, but thank god the judges made the right decision, as Pearson tagged him numerous times in the 2nd and 3rd. One judge and two members of the Sherdog theme didn't seem to think it was all that contentious however, as they scored it 30-27 for Pearson.
- Danny Castillo took a close split decision over Anthony Njokuani. Njokuani showed improved defensive wrestling and ground game compared to his previous few fights against wrestlers.
- Dong Hyun Kim took a nip-tuck decision over Sean Pierson in which he showed improved stand up. Pierson, who in his previous two UFC appearances seemed content to slug it out on the feet, showed some impressive grappling but ultimately came up short.
- Jacob Volkmann used superior grappling to take a one-sided decision over Efrain Escudero. Escudero closed out the fight with a very tight brabo choke locked in, but Volkmann somehow survived for a very tense minute. In all three rounds, Escudero jumped into guillotines early and ended up on his back for extended periods. Stupid. Does he train with Teiquan Zhang or what?
- Diego Nunes used his superior striking and reach to take a decision over Manny Gamburyan. Though he was hurt in the 2nd, Nunes did enough to convincingly take the 1st and the 3rd rounds. This is Gamburyan's 3rd straight loss, so it'll be interesting to see where he goes from here.
