Sunday, January 29, 2012

UFC on Fox 2 Re-cap

The UFC's second offering on Fox delivered where the first one could not in that there was significantly more than a minute of actual fighting, and substantially less pre-fight build up. It's a shame that all three main card fights went to decision, and that most of the excitement and entertainment took place on the undercard. All in all it was a solid offering, although I didn't do nearly as well picking fights for this event (6 for 10) as I did for UFC on FX 1 (9 for 10). A lot of questions were answered and a couple title shots are set. Let's get to it. Since there were only three main card fights, I took the liberty of choosing a couple undercard fights I enjoyed to cover in detail.

Rashad Evans def. Phil Davis via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 5
What Happened: Evans more or less dominated Davis everywhere; out-striking, out-wrestling, and out-grappling him for a large majority of the 25 minute encounter. Davis looked solid in the first round, but a takedown by Evans off of a Davis kick followed by a mounted crucifix tempered Davis' striking and wrestling considerably. The result was a lopsided decision for Evans.
Thoughts: I said it when the fight was originally booked (followed by relief when Davis pulled out due to injury), and I said it again when the fight was re-booked: Davis is not ready for a huge push. This fight was a nice gauge of where he is, but I didn't have much doubt Evans would just be too seasoned and well-rounded for Davis at this point. It's a shame this was a 5-rounder, and not Sonnen vs Bisping, because the first round showed us exactly what the rest of the fight would look like. Nonetheless, it was a learning experience for Davis, as his holes have been exposed and defined, so he'll know what to focus on and improve. Davis has the potential to be a major title contender; his time just isn't now. Evans looked solid and showed he has the conditioning to go 5 rounds, as he has recently been known to slow down considerably around the 3rd round in fights.
Next for Evans: A light heavyweight title tilt with current kingpin Jon Jones.
Next for Davis: Now that he has a better idea of what he needs to improve on to be a top 205er, Davis should still be fighting upper-mid level guys. He could take on the loser of the upcoming Quinton Jackson vs Ryan Bader fight, or take on a solid upper level gatekeeper in the division like Forrest Griffin or Rich Franklin.

Chael Sonnen def. Michael Bisping via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: Sonnen relentlessly pressured Bisping, who spent too much time in close quarters to really let his footwork dictate the fight. Not too much damage was done to either man, and Bisping kept the fight off the ground for extended periods in the first two rounds, but in the third round Sonnen took him down and put his stamp on the fight. His takedowns and control granted him a close decision.
Thoughts: Bisping looked very good overall in the fight, and I'm glad for that because I've always said people disrespect his skills just because they don't like his personality. Bisping has always had impeccable all around skills; technical stand up, solid takedown defense, and crafty guard, and a great ability to get back to his feet. He showed pretty much all of this against Sonnen, and hopefully people will finally give him his respect even in defeat since he made the fight much more competitive than many thought he would. Sonnen was his usual aggressive self, though he looked considerably less polished in the stand up than he usually does. However, his flailing technique did get him on the inside throughout the fight, so I can't knock him too much; but he will need to bring a bit more to the table against Silva.
Next for Sonnen: His workmanlike victory gives him his much desired rematch with the reigning middleweight champion Anderson Silva, and Sonnen will need to bring his A game, because the fight is likely to take place in Brazil.
Next for Bisping: Bisping put on a solid performance, and shouldn't fall far down the ladder. A fight with fellow runner-up Demian Maia; a fight that was originally scheduled for this event before Munoz pulled out 11 days prior with an elbow injury.

Chris Weidman def. Demian Maia via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: In a rather tepid bout, Weidman used well-placed takedowns to take a decision, almost by default. The two were almost even on the feet, with Weidman edging Maia out with slightly cleaner striking, and they were mostly a stalemate on the ground.
Thoughts: Worst fight on the card, by far. Both men looked exhausted partway through the 2nd round, and were winging slow looping shots at each other. Maia resorted for shooting lazy takedowns from feet away, and in general just looked lethargic. Weidman took the fight on 11 days' notice and had to cut a lot of weight so he has a bit of an excuse for the performace, but what about Maia? He had a fight scheduled the entire time and still looked to have terrible cardio. Terrible fight.
Next for Weidman: Although it wasn't a very impressive performance, it's easily the most important win of his career, and will likely vault him into the mix. Rousimar Palhares would make for a great match up. Weidman's not afraid to go to the ground with great grapplers, and we should see how that eagerness plays off against a man who could wear a necklace of legs.
Next for Maia: A perplexedly bad performance for Maia, and that's saying something considering the fact that he hasn't overwhelmingly impressed in quite some time. Having split his last four and gone to decision in his last seven, he has not looked the same since his first career loss: a knockout against Nate Marquardt. He has played things very safe since then, preferring positional control and distance striking to taking risks to finish as he did before. It may draw parallels to Georges St. Pierre post-Matt Serra knockout; except St. Pierre hasn't lost since adopting that style. Maia needs to get back to basics, and he'll need a step down to get back on track. CB Dollaway or Dongi Yang might be appropriate to get him back on track. Or better yet, what's Jason Miller doing?

Evan Dunham def. Nik Lentz via TKO (Doctor Stoppage), Rd 2
What Happened: A wild and entertaining fight saw both fighters have their moments, scoring shots standing and working their wrestling. Lentz eschewed his usual methodical grinding approach in favor for an all-out brawl. After a back and forth 2 rounds which saw Dunham land some hard elbows in the guard before the bell, the fight was up for grabs heading into the third. Unfortunately, a bad cut under Lentz's left eye was rapidly swelling his eye shut, and the cageside doctor had to call the bout.
Thoughts: Once known for boring and plodding (and winning) in his fights, Lentz has to have gained some new fans with his new risk taking style. However, it has yet to give him a victory in his last 3 fights. It's unfortunate that this fight had to be stopped because he may have very well been up 2 rounds to none on the cards. Dunham looked impressive and scrappy as usual, and overcame his usual slow start to turn it on in the second. Both guys looked like solid 155ers tonight, and although Dunham walked away with the W, Lentz put on a great performance; and still walked away with some extra change after winning Fight of the Night. Odd that some people still label Lentz boring when 2 of his last 3 fights have won the award.
Next for Dunham: Dunham is working his way back to the top 10 after hitting a snag, and continues to look solid. I mentioned after UFC 142 that Edson Barboza needs to face someone well rounded, who has the skills to really test his wrestling as well as his submissions; Dunham may be that guy.
Next for Lentz: I'll be angry if Lentz is cut after this loss. Even though he's hit a rough patch, you can't deny the fact that he went unbeaten in his first 7 UFC fights. On top of that, he has finally shed his "boring" label in a lot of people's eyes. Now he just needs to find that happy medium that allows him to be exciting and win at the same time. Lentz's last few fights have really brought forth the notion that the size he gives up works against him. Although he's got great technique and wrestling, bigger guys have been able to take him down fairly regularly as well. A drop to 145 may be in order, where he won't be at a size disadvantage and his wrestling may be even more effective. If he stays at 155, I'd actually like to see him take on George Sotiropoulos. Where has that guy been?

Lavar Johnson def. Joey Beltran via KO (Punches), Rd 1
What Happened: Johnson showed his reach, size, and power advantage early, dropping Beltran with a body punch in the opening seconds. From there it was all Johnson; landing stiff jabs almost at will and battering Beltran around the cage. Beltran found his mark with a few combinations, but nothing of significance. Johnson went in for the kill at the end of the first round, drilling Beltran with uppercuts until he was out on his feet and slowly slumping down face-first on the canvas.
Thoughts: I knew Johnson would be coming in the bigger man, but I honestly expected Beltran to weather the early storm and turn it up. Johnson has shown questionable cardio and takedown defense, and an utter lack of a ground game. For his UFC debut he seemed relaxed and confident, managing a more deliberate pace while still scoring with big punches. It was an unexpectedly impressive performance from him. Beltran just couldn't get it together, and his normally granite chin just couldn't stand up to the power Johnson wields. It was the first time he'd ever been stopped by strikes, and it was a doosey.
Next for Johnson: I know he's coming off a loss, but the thought of Johnson vs Shane Carwin looks pretty awesome. Not that it would make too much sense. Perhaps the winner of the upcoming Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman fight, or Gabriel Gonzaga if they want to see if his wrestling or ground game have really improved.
Next for Beltran: Tough loss for Beltran, but I think he could live to fight another day in the UFC. He could take on fellow loser on the night, John Olav Einemo. Better yet, he did drop a considerable amount of weight for this fight and he's still carrying some extra heft. It would be smart for him to try the cut to 205.

The Prelims
Mike Russow def. John Olav Einemo via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
Russow takes home a workmanlike decision with little action. It was the stinker on the card until Maia-Weidman took that title by lopsided decision. Einemo showed flashes of goodness, but conditioning as well as experience problems prevented him from capitalizing on some opportunities. Russow has quietly put together quite the streak (4 straight in the UFC; 11 straight overall), but his style probably won't endear him to fans. Einemo shows promise, but needs to work on his cardio and clean up some iffy grappling tendencies he brings into the sport with him.
Cub Swanson def. George Roop via TKO (Punches), Rd 2
These two brought it like I knew they would, and I actually had this long tabbed as fight of the night until Dunham-Lentz came along and snatched that away. It started off well for Roop, who used his range well to keep Swanson from landing well, but Swanson soon started to find his range and take advantage of Roop's questionable defense. In the second he answered that questionable defense by landing an absolute bomb that sent Roop's mouthpiece rocketing out of his face, the end was academic.
Charles Oliveira def. Eric Wiselt via Submission (Modified Calf Slicer), Rd 1
Oliveira's featherweight debut didn't last long, and neither did Eric Wisely's streak of not being finished in 6 defeats. Oliveira quickly went to work on a heel hook, and once that was defended, he locked up the leg and grabbed a hold of Wisely's back, pulling him down while still triangling the trapped leg. This interesting variation on the calf slicer left Wisely to live up to his name nad choose to opt out of the fight before risking major damage. Not only did Oliveira take home Submission of the Night, but now enjoys the distinction of owning the first and only calf slicer victory in UFC history. So in case you're not familiar with a calf slicer:


Michael Johnson def. Shane Roller via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
Honestly I picked Roller to take this one because Johnson is good at finding ways to lose, but he looked very much improved in this fight. His stand up was sharper and his footwork was on point, leaving Roller constantly a step behind him. However, he almost live up to his aforementioned reputation in the 3rd when he allowed Roller to take his back, lock in a body triangle, and threaten him with chokes and shots from back mount. In the end, Johnson kept his composure and survived to take home the decision based on winning the first 2 rounds.
Chris Camozzi def. Dustin Jacoby via Submission (Guillotine), Rd 3
The only fight of the night I wasn't able to see, this one mostly gets a mention because I dismissively predicted that Camozzi would win by submission in the 3rd round...and he totally did. Why can't I predict more of the fights I actually care about so flawlessly?

Saturday, January 14, 2012

UFC 142 Recap

Another exciting night of fights has come to a close, and I have to say it was the worst night of picks for me that I can remember. Whether from last minute mind changes, misinformation, hesitation, or bad calls, things just wouldn't go my way tonight. But enough of the pity party, let's get on with the recap.

Jose Aldo def. Chad Mendes via Knockout(knee), Rd 1
What Happened: Despite a fence grabbing offense, Aldo's takedown defense was sterling against Mendes. When Mendes finally got his hands on Aldo, he released a waistlock and shot in, only to be met by a perfectly timed knee from Aldo that dropped him. Aldo swarmed briefly, but there was no more offense needed.
Thoughts: Aldo has always had incredible takedown defense, but after his last two fights I thought Mendes would be able to pull him down. Once it was clear that wasn't the case, I knew Mendes was in for a long (or short) night. Dropping some muscle mass apparently worked well for Aldo, who looked much less drained by the weight cut and didn't settle for letting his opponent lean on him. He had great sense to throw that knee, knowing that Mendes was going to shoot as he turned around. I thought this could look like Faber's fight, but the difference in striking skill between Faber and Mendes was clear; and Mendes' better wrestling had no effect on Aldo. Great to see the champ return to form.
Next for Aldo: Aldo is the only champion where at this moment I can't think of a single legit challenger for Aldo; and not just guys who can pose a threat to Aldo, but guys who are actually in line for a title shot. Initially I might have suggested the winner of Dustin Poirer vs Eric Koch, but Koch's injury puts that bout off for now. Other than that, a more likely suggestion might be Hatsu Hioki should he get past Bart Palaszewski. However, there isn't a guy out there that I don't think would get crushed by Aldo at this point.
Next for Mendes: Though still a top featherweight, Mendes had absolutely nothing for Aldo. If Poirer vs Koch does happen, he may be tabbed to face the loser of that or Hioki vs Palaszewski.

Vitor Belfort def. Anthony Johnson via Submission (Rear-naked choke), Rd 1
What Happened: Johnson came in aggressive, throwing wild strikes and closing the distance quickly. He took Belfort to the ground twice, but two curious stand ups played in Belfort's favor. It wasn't long before Belfort found his rhythm, and made Johnson pay for his recklessness. Gassed from the pace he was pushing and the punches he was taking, Johnson resorted to shooting desperate takedowns. Belfort sprawled and brawled, working his way to Johnson's back before sinking in a rear-naked choke for the tap.
Thoughts: I have to say, I was pretty satisfied to see Johnson get his comeuppance after missing weight by 11 lbs...after moving up in weight. The fact that he missed weight so grossly was bad enough, but his unapologetic behavior following the debacle really sealed his fate for me, and showed how unprofessional and immature he is. I actually had him to win the fight initially, but after his weight cutting snafu something told me his performance would be sub par. Johnson has a ton of ability and potential, and it's a shame to see it wasted on someone who doesn't have the mental capacity to take advantage of it. As for Belfort, he impressed me with his composure from the bottom but other than that, vintage Vitor...minus the submission.
Next for Belfort: He's already signed on to coach TUF Brazil opposite Wanderlei Silva, and the two will meet in Rio De Janeiro this June.
Next for Johnson: I think there's one more cut left for Johnson: a cut from the UFC's roster. There is a high likelihood it will happen, and if so he deserves it. He needs to show that he's mature enough to be in the UFC before he comes back. If for some reason he's allowed to stay he should suffer a marked demotion; the loser of Brian Stann vs Alessio Sakara or Yushin Okami vs Tim Boestch would suffice.

Rousimar Palhares def. Mike Massenzio via Submission (Heel hook), Rd 1
What Happened: Palhares did what he does best. He shot in on Massenzio, pulled guard and went straight for the leg. Once he gets a hold of it, it's usually a matter of time before the fight is over; and it was no different in this fight.
Thoughts: Everyone knows it's coming, but not many can stop it. That's what happens when you're in the guard of a sinewy freak of nature wired specifically for ripping your leg off frothing at the mouth for some ambulatory abolition. I knew it was going to happen, but I thought Massenzio's height and reach advantage, as well as his own grappling acumen would at least allow him to stave it off for a bit longer.
Next for Palhares: One has to think Palhares is approaching the door to a title shot. He's 7-2 in the UFC and has only lost to Nate Marquardt and Dan Henderson, both of whom were top 5 middleweights when they fought. He should fight the winner of the upcoming Demian Maia vs Michael Bisping match up to see who will be next in line after the winner of Chael Sonnen vs Mark Munoz.
Next for Massenzio: Massenzio has had a rough UFC run, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's cut following this loss, but if one thing could save him it could be his impressive decision win over Steve Cantwell in his previous bout. If he stays around he could take on CB Dollaway, Jorge Rivera, or Tom Lawlor

Carlo Prater def. Erick Silva via Disqualification (Punches to the back of the head), Rd 1
What Happened: Some BS, that's what. Prater immediately eats a knee to the body and goes down for a single. Silva starts raining hammerfists and Prater tries to drive for the takedown, but the punches are too much and the fight is stopped. What looked to be a clear TKO victory for Silva controversially turns out to be a DQ win for Prater, because Silva landed punches to the back of Prater's head.
Thoughts: I know refs are human and make mistakes, but this was a terrible call and should have been a no contest. I'm not one of the people who say Silva barely landed to the back of the head; from what I saw he landed several (possibly) illegal shots, and I was saying this even before the stoppage or the DQ announcement. What garnered my ire was that Prater couldn't continue due to an injury sustained completely independent of the illegal blows, and yet it was still ruled a DQ win for him. If he was injured or knoced out due to the punches in question, DQ Silva; otherwise, it's clearly a no contest. If Prater can continue, deduct a point from Silva. Talk to the injured fighter before making your decision. It's not rocket science.
Next for Prater: This should be viewed as a loss for him because he was clearly the lesser fighter. He should fight Luis Ramos, another Silva victim.
Next for Silva: I fully expect this loss to be treated as a win, but with the way things went it's hard for me to place Silva in the division; so I'll defer to Sherdog.com's suggestion that he face the winner of Josh Neer vs Duane Ludwig.

Edson Barboza def. Terry Etim via Knockout (Spinning wheel kick), Rd 1
What Happened: Etim looked good early in the fight, using great footwork and combinations to keep Barboza honest. Then came the leg kicks, which slowed Etim down considerably and rendered his output more conservative. The fight looked to be going in the direction of competitive decision for Barboza when he launched an incredible spinning wheel kick, catching Etim in the jaw with his heel. Etim was out immediately, and fell backward as stiffly as a freshly chopped tree.
Thoughts: Amazing knockout for Barboza, the first of it's kind in the UFC. Barboza has always been regarded a great prospect, but lacked that defining performance in the UFC to really distinguish him from the rest of the pack. In a way, this was that performance. I say "in a way" because no one knows who Mike Lullo is, I thought he lost to Anthony Njokuani, barely scraped by against Ross Pearson, and was far from dominant in this fight until the KO. I'm sure many will forget how relatively unspectacular he's looked until now due to this knockout, but with time he could be a major player in the division.
Next for Barboza: He's done well against the strikers they've put him up against, but it's about time we see how he deals with a good wrestler. Etim revealed that his takedown defense could use work, and although he got back to his feet quickly, Etim is no wrestler. He may not be able to spring up so readily against a good wrestler. Once again I'll defer to Sherdog because I like him facing the winner of Evan Dunham vs Nik Lentz, and I'll throw my own in there with Gleison Tibau.
Next for Etim: Etim just can't seem to crack the upper crust of the division, even though he has excellent stand up and grappling. Yves Edwards or rematch with Sam Stout might make for a good match up.

Prelim Quick Hits
Thiago Tavares def. Sam Stout via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 1: A very closely contested fight, but Tavares didn't do much to win it but narrowly take two rounds on the judges scorecards. Stout had the most significant action of the bout, rocking Tavares at the end of the fight. Tavares took the first with takedowns, Stout clearly took the third, and the second was the toss up. I personally had it 10-10 for a draw.
Gabriel Gonzaga def. Edinaldo Oliveira via Submission (Rear-naked Choke), Rd 1: Gonzaga is back, and I knew Oliveira would be shown to be overrated. Everyone made a deal of him being a major training partner of current heavyweight champ Junior dos Santos, but the guy has proven nothing in his actual fight career. Never jump on a guy's bandwagon because of what he does in training.
Yuri Alcantara def. Michihiro Omigawa via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3: As a huge fan of Omigawa this one had me a bit sour, but Alcantara showed some solid skills and Omigawa gained even more of my respect for being tough as nails. He survived an armbar at the end of the first round in which his arm was badly hyperextended, and went on to finish the fight like nothing happened. Unfortunately, he didn't get the win, and could very well be on his way out of the UFC.
Mike Pyle def. Ricardo Funch via TKO (Knee and Punches), Rd 1: Pyle provided tonight's squash match (since Silva vs Prater was screwed up) at the expense of a surprisingly-back-in-the-UFC Funch. Funch never belonged in the UFC.
Felipe Arantes def. Antonio Carvalho via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3: On paper this was a fight Carvalho should have won. He's faced better opposition and shown better skills. Maybe it was Octagon jitters, but Carvalho just couldn't get it together tonight, and looked stiff and tight on all his strikes. He showed that if he could bring it to the ground, he had a clear advantage, but after his initial display he couldn't muster up any meaningful offense. Hopefully he does well in his next outing because I like the guy.