DREAM 15 recap

DREAM 15 was a very middling event for me just because while it was a good event, most of my favorite guys lost haha. It happens, but some of the fallout is what I will find most displeasing. Also, I decided to structure my recaps more like Sherdog's post-event analyses, so let's see how that goes.

Shinya Aoki (Champion) def Tatsuya Kawajiri via Submission (Achilles Lock), Rd 1
My prediction: Kawajiri would practically be a Japanese Melendez in the fight, and dominate Aoki while staying out of trouble en route to a decision win.
What happened: Aoki shot in immediately, got stuffed, and snatched the leg. Kawajiri fought valiantly for over a minute, but once Aoki has you caught in something, it's a pretty safe bet that it's over.
Thoughts: Kawajiri is one of my favorite lightweights, so it was hard to see him lose from a split-second mistake like that when he'd been waiting so long for an epic title fight. I still think he's a better fighter than Aoki, but Aoki's game is latching on quick subs. If he does, you're in big trouble. If not, he's borderline useless. Don't mind my love-hate relationship with Aoki; I tend to alternate between rooting for and against him because he has qualities I strongly like and dislike as both a person and a fighter. I still think Kawajiri and past victims like Joachim Hansen (although i dunno as of late), JZ Cavalcante, and Eddie Alvarez can beat him down on any given night. But all the props to Aoki for the win; he's the ultimate opportunist of the division, and he makes the most of people's mistakes on the ground. My biggest problem is that I really thought Kawajiri was better for the job of avenging DREAM against Strikeforce and Gilbert Melendez. Kawajiri vs. Melendez would make for a much more competitive match that I think Kawajiri has a chance at winning. Aoki wants to rematch Melendez now, and I don't see the rematch going any differently.
Next for Aoki: He says he's fighting Melendez again in September, and realistically there aren't anymore viable challengers in DREAM who have earned a title shot at the moment. Whoever won this title fight would be in that predicament.
Next for Kawajiri: I guess losing creates more matches for Kawajiri. He can fight JZ again, Katsunori Kikuno, or Vitor Ribeiro. A fight with Eddie Alvarez could also be possible, but I'd still rather see a Kawajiri/Melendez pairing.

Gesias "JZ" Cavalcante def. Katsunori Kikuno via Decision (Split), Rd 2
My prediction: Kikuno would keep things interesting and competitive on the feet, and may even have the edge, but JZ would dominate the mat game for a submission win.
What happened: pretty much everything above, except Kikuno was able to show enough sub defense to last to the final bell and lose a competitive decision.
Thoughts: Like Kawajiri, Kikuno is one of my favorite lightweights around. I like that he has successfully integrated traditional Kyokushin karate into a very effective style of MMA standup. I'm also very impressed with the fact that, like Lyoto Machida, he can utilize a traditional karate stance that leaves him wide open to a knockout, yet he remains difficult to hit cleanly. With that said, he needs to start focusing on the ground aspect of MMA. He does very well against opponents who will stand with him or don't have the skills to take him down (his takedown defense is far from impenetrable, but also far from terrible), but once he does go to the ground he's at a distinct disadvantage. In this fight he showed much improved ground defense against a far, far superior grappler, so he just may be working towards a better ground game. JZ looked pretty good in his return from a year layoff and two straight losses, and should be making his way into the title mix.
Next for JZ: I take it he will be making his Strikeforce debut next, which opens up some nice matchups for him. I personally think a fight with Josh Thomson would be wildly entertaining. And if KJ Noons wasn't being fed (surprise) Jorge Gurgel I might suggest him, so that Noons can stop getting gift-wrapped opponents. Like Kawajiri (also a possibility) there are a good number of matches for JZ.
Next for Kikuno: Like the Alvarez fight, this is a real indicator of the fact that Kikuno could move so much higher in the lightweight ranks if he had a ground game. I think Vitor Ribeiro would make for a nice striker vs. grappler match that would majorly test his ground game, but also keep him comfortable on the feet.

Gegard Mousasi def. Jake O'Brien via Submission (Guillotine Choke), Rd 1
My prediction: Easy win for Mousasi, wherever the fight goes.
What happened: Even easier win for Mousasi than I thought. O'Brien left his neck gift wrapped and wide open during a sloppy takedown attempt.
Thoughts: First off, I have to say that I'm disgusted with Jake O'Brien. How do you show up (or not show up) at weigh-ins for a light heavyweight (205 lb) fight weighing 226 lbs?! Especially being a wrestler?! Maybe there were some legitimate reasons for his terrible display of professionalism, but as it stands right now he is a disgrace. He came into the fight looking pudgy and awful, immediately shot in for a sloppy takedown, and got what he deserved: choked out.
Next for Mousasi: Tatsuya Mizuno. It's a tournament, folks.
Next for O'Brien: Who knows. I highly doubt DREAM will want him back after this debacle, and surely no other major or semi-major promotion will want anything to do with him, at least for a while. He seriously needs to sit down and do some reflecting.

Tatsuya Mizuno def. Melvin Manhoef via Submission (Kimura), Rd 1
My prediction: Manhoef would run roughshod all over Mizuno's ass standing up, and if by some chance Mizuno got it to the ground, he still wouldn't be able to do too much. Manhoef by Sub Zero style head and spine rip.
What happened: Mizuno survived Manhoef's early blitzkrieg special, almost locked in a kimura from the bottom, then did the unexpected once the fight returned to the feet: blitzed Mahoef, dropped him, pounded on him a bit, then did the decidedly more expected: submitted him.
Thoughts: This was definitely the upset of the night. I'm a fan of Manhoef, but it's hard not to be happy for former salaryman-turned fighter and all around nice guy Mizuno after such a big win. Too bad he'll be murdered by Mousasi in the final, but it's still a big confidence booster for him to make it to the final I'm sure. This tournament was obviously constructed to arrange a blockbuster rematch between Manhoef and Mousasi (Manhoef was triangle choked in the first match). Mousasi held up his end of the bargain, but Manhoef continues his recent string of bad luck. And if there ever was a fighter that suffers tremendously from his lacking ground game, it's Manhoef. He can out-strike almost anyone in his weight class, but can't grapple worth a damn. There have been too many fights he was dominating, only to make it to the ground and get exposed. I remember him saying he was working diligently on his ground game a while back, and well, it doesn't seem to be working too much. I really hope he can turn things around for himself, and soon.
Next for Mizuno: Mousasi. And the end of a 3-fight win streak.
Next for Manhoef: Manhoef has lost 2 straight for the first time in his MMA career, so it may be time for a tune-up fight just to get his confidence back. But purely for my own interest, I'd like to see him rematch Robby Lawler, maybe this time in DREAM. He utterly destroyed Lawler before being caught with a Hail Mary bomb, and I think he deserves the chance to avenge that loss. Just hope his weak chin isn't exposed yet again.

Michihiro Omigawa def Young Sam Jung via Submission (Guillotine Choke), Rd 1
My prediction: Jung has no business being in there with Omigawa, and this was clearly a gift-wrapped fight to welcome Omigawa to DREAM. Omigawa by whatever he wants.
What happened: See above, except Jung was a bit tougher than expected.
Thoughts: I've been full throttle on the Omigawa bandwagon for a while now. Controversial decisions and all, he always comes to fight, he's gritty, durable, and in my opinion was easily the most improved fighter of 2009. He was thrown to the sharks and horribly managed at the start of his career, and fought at lightweight despite being a natural featherweight. To turn around and go from a tomato can 4-7 lightweight, to a top 10 ranked featherweight (currently at 11-8-1) is nothing short of amazing. And I don't know what it is about the Yoshida Dojo, but its Judo converts quickly develop relatively strong boxing. Omigawa's seemingly overnight change from plodding rudimentary striking to slick footwork, excellent head movement, and a snappy, effective 1-2 combo accounts for a large part of his success. Okay, enough of my fawning over Omigawa. Jung showed great heart in this fight, and got out of some situations that no one really expected the winless Korean to escape, including being dropped and almost finished early, and a tight guillotine that he escaped. He also threated Omigawa from his back with consistent up kicks and armbar attempts. A win would have been huge, but I guess it's back to obscurity for Jung.
Next for Omigawa: I love that Omigawa has defected from Sengoku to Dream. There are so many good matchups that await him. If you want to hot shot him, a rematch with Hiroyuki Takaya (whom he TKO'd at Dynamite! 2009 DREAM vs Sengoku) would put him in the title mix. If not, pairings with Joachim Hansen, Hideo Tokoro, Mitsuhiro Ishida, and Kid Yamamoto would all make for very entertaining bouts. And of course I would love to see him take on Bibiano Fernandes for the title someday.
Next for Jung: Back to Korea in search of his first professional win (althought he claimed he was actually 7-3 prior to this fight). He shouldn't have to search too long as he showed some good heart, and Korean MMA generally sucks (just kidding....not really).

Mitsuhiro Ishida def. Daiki "DJ Taiki" Hata via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 2
My prediction: Another fight, another grinding decision of top position dominance from Ishida.
What happened: See above.
Thoughts: This really came as no surprise. Ishida was a strong wrestler for an undersized lightweight so he should be absolutely dominant with his move to featherweight, and this match displayed that. DJ had moments of brilliance, and showed a great deal of toughness and a never-say-die attitude. But it just wasn't enough for a top position specialist like Ishida, who has endless cardio and an exceptionally strong base. Good to see Ishida snap a 2-fight losing streak as well. I was never too familiar with DJ, except for his love of cosplay (which he unfortunately didn't display for this match), and being exceptionally tough. The toughness definitely showed in this fight, and he has never been finished in 7 losses.
Next for Ishida: With his move to featherweight comes a wealth of matches. You can pretty much insert Omigawa, or anyone on the list I made for Omigawa, minus Ishida of course. I think a fight against Joe Warren could be very interesting, with both of them coming from a strong wrestling base and don't have exceptional striking.

Kazuhiro Nakamura def. Karl Amoussou via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 2
My prediction: Amoussou has fast, powerful striking but not much of a ground game. Nakamura has pretty good boxing (Yoshida Dojo), a good chin, and is a Judo black belt (again, Yoshida Dojo). Nakamura would get it to the ground and work out a decision.
What happened: See above
Thoughts: Kazuhiro Nakamura is much like his master Hidehiko Yoshida: he should not be judged by his record. If you look purely at their records, as well as their styles, it would seem that Amoussou was prime to blitz and knock out Nakamura. Nakamura's record is 15-10. Pretty unimpressive, eh? But take this into consideration: Nakamura has only fought in major organizations, and is even a 2-time UFC vet; 6 of his 10 losses have come to current top 10 fighters, including light heavyweights Mauricio Rua (#1), Lyoto Machida (#2), Antonio Rogerio Nogueira twice(#6, and their first fight was Nakamura's MMA debut), and middleweights Dan Henderson (#5) and Jorge Santiago (#9). And that's not all. All of his remaining losses are to former top 10 fighters Wanderlei Silva (PRIDE Middleweight Champ and top 3, if not #1 at 205 at the time), Josh Barnett (former #2 Heavyweight), Sokoudjou (fresh off a loss to Machida, but still hot off knockout upsets of Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona in PRIDE), and Kazuo Misaki (pretty sure he was a top 10 middleweight at some point haha). He has lost to nothing but top guys. On top that he has wins against Murilo Bustamante (former UFC Middleweight Champ), Kevin Randleman (former UFC Heavyweight Champ), Igor Vovchanchyn (PRIDE 2000 World Grand Prix runner-up), Yuki Kondo, Evangelista Santos, and his own master Hidehiko Yoshida in what was Yoshida's final match. So yeah....this guy's pretty legit. Amoussou by comparison is largely untested. Whew. So was this fight really that much of an upset?
Next for Nakamura: I'm glad Nakamura came to DREAM from Sengoku along with Omigawa. There are plenty of decent matches left for him, but I think a battle with Sakuraba could be pretty entertaining.
Next for Amoussou: Back to Strikeforce. Since now he and Trevor Prangley are coming off losses, I think it's a good idea to schedule a rematch of their controversial technical draw from earlier this year. Let's see who still has some relevance haha.