UFC on FX 2 Re-cap

Between the Japan event and this one, my confidence in my picking skills has been turned on it's head. Unlikely comebacks and upsets seem to be the in-thing now, and I find my self on a 3-event slump. Interestingly enough, these same events that were terrible from a prediction standpoint were also very entertaining and well put together cards. The inconvenience of a Friday (in the U.S.) event meant I had to sneak around and watch much of the prelim action during work, and ultimately led to me missing a couple fights, but let's recap the UFC's return to Australia and the inaugural flyweight title tournament.

Martin Kampmann def. Thiago Alves via Submission (Guillotine Choke), Rd 3
What Happened: Alves looked pretty sterling through most of the 3 rounds, accurately counter-striking, stuffing takedowns, and even scoring one of his own in the first and moving to mount before the round's end. Up on the scorecards with about a minute left in the fight, Alves hurt Kampmann with a combination against a cage, and then made a decision he would immediately regret: he shot a takedown instead of continuing his striking assault. Kampmann immediately grabbed hold of his neck and reversed to mount, cinching in the choke and coaxing a tap for a last-minute comeback.
Thoughts: This was a heartbreaking loss for Alves, who looked fantastic for much of the fight. One has to think back to the last UFC event, where we saw the best Yushin Okami we've ever seen for 2 rounds before Tim Boestch flew into beast mode and TKO'd him in the 3rd. It really breeds confusion as to who really came out the better fighter on that given night. Alves shouldn't fall too far down the ladder for the loss, but his record is rather shaky since his failed title shot, so it remains to be seen if he'll ever enter the title mix again. Kampann, meanwhile, has won two straight after a two fight skid composed of highly contentious decisions. He could have easily been on a six fight winning streak, and I figure that even though he didn't perform spectacularly in this fight, he shouldn't be too far from being considered a possible contender, especially considering his win over current interim champion Carlos Condit.
Next for Kampmann: With Condit likely waiting for GSP to heal, Jake Ellenberger needs an opponent, and it could be Kampmann. Otherwise, he could also take on the winner of the upcoming Josh Koscheck vs Johny Hendricks bout.
Next for Alves: A logical next step for Alves could be Diego Sanchez, as they both are in need of some proving that they are still top-shelf welterweights. Sherdog also suggested the loser of Paulo Thiago vs Siyar Bahadurzada, which could prove a solid, albeit perhaps less stiff challenge.

Joseph Benavidez def. Yasuhiro Urushitani via TKO (Punches), Rd 2
What Happened: As expected, Urushitani had nothing for Benavidez. He acquitted himself decently on the feet until he was taken down, and saved by the bell while Benavidez locked in a rear-naked choke. In the second round, Benavidez wasted no time cracking Urushitani in the jaw with a counter right hand, sending him careening to the floor, and finishing him up with follow-up punches.
Thoughts: No surprises here. As soon as the flyweight division was mentioned, I said Benavidez would be the first champ in the UFC, and now he's one fight away from making that happen. Urushitani, while a solid top 10 flyweight, is a somewhat one-dimensional striker with an effective jab and good footwork, but no power. The likelihood that he would stick and move to a decision against Benavidez was nil.
Next for Benavidez: The winner of the Demetrious Johnson/Ian McCall rematch.
Next for Urushitani: Urushitani was simply fed to a shark in his debut, and should stick around. I figure if he should take on the loser of the upcoming John Dodson vs Darren Uyenoyama bout, or the winner of John Lineker vs Louis Gaudinot.

Demetrious Johnson and Ian McCall fight to a Majority Draw, Rd 3
What Happened: It was a blindingly fast back and forth barn-burner that saw both men with some good offense. After a very close two rounds, McCall pulled ahead in a big way in round three, following up a takedown by gaining mount and then back control. He then unleashed a torrent of strikes that would make Donkey Kong proud, almost gaining a stoppage. Johnson survived, and won a decision...or so we thought. A tabulation error by the athletic commission awarded Johnson the win, when in reality McCall had done enough to fight to a majority draw.
Thoughts: Fantastic fight, and a real shame that a stupid mistake has turned this tournament on it's head a bit. The UFC implemented sudden death rounds in the tournament for this very occasion (a draw), and now we were robbed of an extra round in which McCall would have been riding some serious momentum. McCall showed excellent scrambling and positional control, while Johnson showed off the blinding speed and striking accuracy that he's known for. Notably absent was his considerable wrestling thanks to McCall's ability to shut it down and impose his own wrestling. Looking forward to the rematch, even though it comes from unfortunate circumstances.
Next for Johnson: McCall.
Next for McCall: Johnson.

Constantinos Philippou def. Court McGee via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: In a relatively ho-hum affair, Philippou out-boxed McGee and shrugged off every one of his takedown attempts, leading to a fight that was contested pretty much entirely on the feet. Philippou was content to circle and look for counter openings, likely respecting the wrestling and chin of McGee, who came alive in the 3rd round with some added aggression but fell short on the scorecards.
Thoughts: I honestly expected a common McGee win: he gets beat up early, and holds on with his great recovery and cardio to take the final two rounds. Interestingly enough, according to Fightmetric McGee actually out-struck Phillipou in rounds one and three, both in terms of significant and total strikes. Since the entirety of the fight was carried out on the feet, one might suggest McGee should have won. However, in watching the fight Philippou looked to be controlling the striking battle for the first two rounds, so I can't complain about the decision. Neither man really impressed me, so I don't have too much to say here.
Next for Philippou: He has quietly put together a solid three fight win streak, and figures to move up nicely in such a relatively shallow division. One way in which Philippou did impress was in his takedown defense, which would be tested in a bout with Ronny Markes, who conversely needs to show he can hang in there with a good boxer, as he showed to be hittable against Aaron Simpson.
Next for McGee: Not a terrible loss for McGee who once again used his tremendous cardio to finish strong. His overall game still needs some improvement, but he figures to still be a solid middleweight. Fellow runner up and TUF 11 contestant Kyle Noke, who dropped a tough decision to Andrew Craig. I actually wish Rich Attonito hadn't dropped to welterweight as he is coming off a loss, and the fact that he withdrew from TUF 11 due to injury and was replaced by McGee, who went on to win the competition would make for a nice story.

The Prelims
James Te Huna def. Aaron Rosa via TKO (Punches), Rd 1
Great performance by Te Huna as he steamrolled the durable Rosa. I figured Rosa would last longer than he did, but he had nothing for Te Huna and took too many heavy shots to stay in the fight. Te Huna is turning into a bit of a presence at 205, with his only loss coming to top prospect Alexander Gustaffson. Contrary to what I, and I'm sure most thought, Rosa has actually looked worse since returning to 205 than he did in his debut at heavyweight. Maybe it's time for him to get fat again.
Anthony Perosh def. Nick Penner via TKO (Punches and Elbows), Rd 1
Perosh gets a surprising TKO win with one second left on the clock in the opening round. Penner looked good early, but he appeared to slow down fast, and once Perosh managed to get the fight to the ground it didn't look good. Perosh is steadily proving that at 40 years old he's still got it, and may be learning a few new tricks.
Steven Siler def. Cole miller via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
Another unexpected result, many (including myself) saw Siler as cage fodder for Cole Miller's featherweight debut, with a nice story tacked on in that Siler defeated Cole's brother Micah to get onto The Ultimate Fighter last season. It looks like Siler can now adopt the title "Miller Killer", as he used aggressive striking and wrestling to take it to Miller for two rounds before hanging on during the third as Miller rallied. Siler keeps surprising us, and Miller must go back to the drawing board after his rude welcome to 145.
Andrew Craig def. Kyle Noke via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
I didn't manage to catch this fight, but from the play-by-plays it sounded like Noke started off strong, and faltered in the latter two rounds as Craig found his rhythm. This fight was very close to pick, but i figured Noke would prevail due to his overall and octagon experience. According to Dana White, Noke actually blew out his knee in the first round, which could explain a lot.
TJ Waldburger def. Jake Hecht via Submission (Armbar), Rd 1
Waldburger has shown some crazy adept scrambling and grappling ability, and when he sees an opportunity he goes in for the kill without hesitation. This bout was no different for him, as he jumped on an armbar early in the fight during a scramble and didn't didn't let up, coaxing a tap less than a minute into the fight. Waldburger has shown some fantastic grappling ability in his UFC bouts, and if he improves his stand up he could definitely be someone to look at.
Daniel Pineda def. Mackens Semerzier via Submission (Triangle Armbar), Rd 1
I'm not sure why it is that Semerzier just can't put it all together. He's got a solid all-around game, but is prone to mistakes anywhere the fight goes. That's not to take anything away from Pineda, who seems to have found his groove lately. Don't let his mediocre record fool you, he has shown vast improvement recently and is someone to look at in the division. As he moves ahead, bigger featherweights may give him some trouble, as he looked pretty undersized against Semerzier. Nonetheless, he showed off a high level of adeptness in both the striking and grappling department in this fight. His 17 finishes in 17 career wins also says much about his tenacity and killer instinct.
Shawn Jordan def. Oli Thompson via TKO (Punches), Rd 2
It took him a tad longer than I thought it would, but Jordan put away Thompson by overwhelming him with strikes early in the 2nd. Thompson is tough and hits hard, but that's about all he's got working for him. He's not well-rounded enough at this point to hang with the many of the heavyweights in the UFC. Jordan looked about as good as expected.