UFC on FOX 3 Recap

The first thing I must say is that never in my life have I had such a horrible record for picking fights in a mixed martial arts event. Of the twelve fights on the docket, I managed to correctly decipher just three correct winners. I can at least seek solace in that one can attribute this to the fact that the match ups were well-made and generally close. I flip-flopped several times on most of them; it just turns out that for the majority of the fights I flipped when I should have flopped. Despite my terrible stroke of picking luck, it was an entertaining event in which contenders emerged and several fighters put on highlighting performances.

Nate Diaz def. Jim Miller via Submission (Guillotine Choke), Rd 2
What Happened: Diaz used his height and reach advantage to great effect, stifling Miller's stand up attack with accurate, clean punches. Miller's wrestling proved to be insufficient when it came to getting the fight to the ground, and Diaz was able to nullify anything Miller could accomplish in the clinch. From there it was all downhill for Miller, and he appeared to be in for a long night. Apparently it wasn't so, as it took Diaz less than 10 minutes to grab Miller's, pull guard, and roll through into a beautiful guillotine; locked in so swiftly Miller didn't even have a chance to put his tongue back into his mouth before his mouth clamped shut from the pressure.
Thoughts: "He just had my number." Those are the words Miller had post-fight, and what true words they were. Diaz seemed to have an answer for everything Miller could muster, and punished him for even trying. He has really come into his own in recent fights, and has become someone to worry about for the rest of the division. His long, lanky frame, highly effective boxing, potent jiu jitsu, durability, and otherworldly cardio have propelled him among the lightweight elite. Miller on the other hand, is still a very solid lightweight, but seems to have issues against larger opponents he can't grind down so effectively. By the start of the second round it was clear Diaz had the upper hand, and it resulted in Miller being stopped for the first time in his career.
Next for Diaz: Dana White has declared that Diaz is next in line for a title shot, and will take on the winner of the upcoming title rematch between Benson Henderson and Frankie Edgar. This figures to be a ways off, and although Diaz says he's willing to wait and wants to take some time off, there is a back up in case he doesn't: Anthony Pettis. It would be instant fireworks, and would give Pettis a chance to exact an interesting bit of poetic justice, seeing as how he was in Diaz's position coming into the UFC, decided not to wait, and lost his title shot after falling to Clay Guida. While this fight would be ideal in my opinion, I have no issue with Diaz waiting for a title shot.
Next for Miller: A tough loss for Miller, who is starting to remind me of one Kenny Florian: great fighter, easily worthy of top 10 status; but he just can't get past top guys. Part of the reason may be that he tends to be undersized and overpowered in his losses. I always balk when people call for a drop in weight once they hit hard times, but it might be a good fit for Miller. He's definitely good enough to remain at 155 though, and should take on the loser of the upcoming Gray Maynard vs Clay Guida fight.

Johny Hendricks def. Josh Koscheck via Decision (Split), Rd 3
What Happened: Hendricks edged out Koscheck in a close and competitive fight where both men went toe to toe on the feet, with a bit of wrestling thrown in at spots. Both men displayed sturdy chins, while Hendricks enjoyed a slight striking edge and Koscheck a slight edge in wrestling. Koscheck finished strong, taking Hendricks down in the 3rd and battering him with ground and pound until the bell. In the end, Koscheck's swollen right eye apparently told the story for two of the three judges, who awarded Hendricks a hard fought decision.
Thoughts: First off, I scored the fight for Koscheck. However, it was close and I could see someone giving the first round to Hendricks. Koscheck is starting to look the roll of a top-level gatekeeper; he can hang with anyone in the division, but the ability to beat him makes you elite. Hendricks barely passed that test, and while he definitely displayed a few holes in his game, his future figures to be bright. As for Koscheck, this all but dashes his hopes for another title shot, as his two-fight winning streak is snapped.
Next for Hendricks: One has to think he's zeroing in on a title shot. While his performance didn't warrant putting him next in line, I'd say a win against fellow surging welterweight Rory MacDonald might just do the trick.
Next for Koscheck: He performed better than a lot of people thought he would, and showed that although he may be passing the torch to the younger prospects of the division, he's still a tough out for anyone in the division. I know a lot of people are clamoring for him to finally face Jon Fitch now that the two are no longer teammates, I still don't think they will fight each other. He should take on the loser of Jake Ellenberger vs Martin Kampmann.

Alan Belcher def. Rousimar Palhares via TKO (Punches and Elbows), Rd 1
What Happened: Belcher said he had no fear going to the ground with perhaps the most dangerous grappler in MMA, and he made good on that proclamation. After scrambling to the ground and impressively rolling Palhares into twister position, it was a matter of time before Palhares found his signature heel hook. Belcher rolled with it, and after several tense moments did what few others have managed to do: escape the hold. However, he wasn't done there. Contrary to what simple logic would dictate to most of us, he decided to stay on the ground with Palhares and play in his guard. Much to the surprise of just about everyone, a few elbows and punches rung Palhares' bell and prompted the ref to step in.
Thoughts: Well I guess that's what we all get for doubting Belcher. He did exactly what he said he was going to do, and showed that it's not Palhares that guys should be worried most about going to the ground with, but himself. I'd still argue it's Palhares, since you still run the risk of having a leg ripped off, but you get the idea. Belcher also proclaimed that he wants Anderson Silva next, to which I say, "Don't push your luck buddy." He may have beaten Palhares in his domain, but Silva is a whole different beast.
Next for Belcher: Belcher came through in a big way, and has thrown his name into the hat of contenders at 185. I think the best bet for him is the winner of Hector Lombard vs Brian Stann, but it appears likely that Lombard will earn a title shot with a win. If that turns out to be the case, the winner of Mark Munoz vs Chris Weidman may await him.
Next for Palhares: Once again when on the cusp of contention, Palhares falls short. As we've seen from several high level BJJ players in MMA, he seemed more concerned with searching for a submission from his back than protecting his face, and it cost him dearly. I'd like to see him take on the loser of either Ed Herman vs Jake Shields or Michael Bisping vs Tim Boestch.

Lavar Johnson def. Pat Barry via TKO (Punches), Rd 1
What Happened: In a guaranteed barn-burner, Johnson's size and power proved too much for the more polished striking of Barry. After surviving full mount and an americana attempt by Barry, Johnson escaped back to his feet and let the leather fly, pummeling the much smaller Barry against the cage until he dropped.
Thoughts: This was a new high in Barry's displays of questionable fight IQ. After starting off the fight throwing a couple stinging low kicks, which clearly affected Johnson, he does away with them entirely and decides to play right into Johnson's game by brawling. After scoring a takedown, I thought the fight was soon coming to an end, despite Barry's limited skills on the ground. He immediately landed in mount, and just as soon curiously hopped out to side control, baffling pretty much everyone. From ther e he worked for an americana, but lacked the proper technique to finish it. Finally, in the ending moments of the fight he decided against circling out or using head movement in favor of covering up, standing right in front of Johnson, and hoping to block the heavy shots. It was an impressive performance by Johnson, but also an all-too-familiar example of a classic Barry in-fight screw up. It appears Barry is less concerned with winning than he is putting on an exciting fight, and whil that might earn him bonus checks and fans, but he's wasting a lot of talent and potential.
Next for Johnson: As impressive as Johnson's power is, the jury is still out on just how good he is. It's time for him to face someone less likely to get pinned up against the fence and throw hays in the pocket with him. I'd give him the winner of Stefan Struve vs Mark Hunt or Shane Carwin, if and when he ever returns.
Next for Barry: It's difficult to determine where Barry belongs in the division. He tends to alternate wins and losses because every time he loses he bounces back with a winnable fight that isn't too far down in the pecking order. The problem now is that I'm not so sure how many of those are still left in the UFC at this point. How about Phillip De Fries?

The Prelims
Michael Johnson def. Tony Ferguson via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3 The Blackzilians have done Johnson very well. He has been looking better and better since he joined the camp, and this is was arguably best performance yet as he tagged Ferguson repeatedly with left hands. On the flip side, Ferguson didn't appear to be himself, and looked listless and lackadaisical compared to his previous fights. Come to find out, this may have been the result of a broken arm he suffered early in the fight when blocking a kick from Johnson. I was a great performance by Johnson, and a minor setback for Ferguson, who still has a good amount of upside and will be back stronger.
John Dodson def. Tim Elliot via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3 This fight turned out to be more a showcase for Elliot than its obvious intention as a showcase for Dodson. Dodson performed well as expected for the first half of the fight, but the latter parts of the fight belong to the wily striking attack of Elliot, as his cartwheel and spin kicked his way into the favor of spectators. He rose to the occasion on short notice, and the result left us thinking that maybe we shouldn't be so quick to crown Dodson the first flyweight title challenger when the champion is minted. However, much like Ferguson you have to think the fact that Dodson broke his hand in the first round had some bearing on why he suddenly became defensive.
Johh Hathaway def. Pascal Krauss via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3 After a disappointing loss and a lackluster win, John Hathaway returned to being John Hathaway. He used his solid wrestling to stifle Krauss' attacks and rough him up in the clinch, and even tried to change things up with a few leaping kicks and a knee in the first that nearly put Krass' lights out. A good win for Hathaway after a lengthy layoff; and a still admirable performance by Krauss, who not only was fought his highest level of competition yet, but was also coming from a long layoff. In fact, I originally thought this fight was Krauss' UFC debut, completely forgetting his exciting decision win over Mark Scanlon at UFC 122.
Louis Gaudinot def. John Lineker via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke), Rd 2 In an exciting fight of the night performance, Gaudinot and Lineker stood in the pocket and threw lighting fast haymakers at each other for much of the first round, of which Lineker was getting the better shots off. It was a wonder no one went down, and it was more of the same in the 2nd round until Gaudinot capitalized on what now appears to be a weakness for Lineker: his takedown defense. Gaudinot easily took him down and landed some nice ground and pound. After the fight returned to standing, Gaudinot locked up Lineker's neck and jumped guard. Lineker held on for as long as he could, refusing to tap, but shortly after fell unconscious. Sick fight.
Danny Castillo def. John Cholish via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3 A pretty nip-tuck decision for Castillo, who used well timed takedowns and slightly more potent stand up to take the fight 30-27 on all judges scorecards in one of the more competitive clean sweeps in recent events. I thought Castillo would have more trouble with Cholish, as he seems to struggle with more technically sound wrestlers, but he fought well against Cholish, who seemed to prefer the stand up much of the time. I enjoy Cholish's bouncing feint-heavy style of stand up, but the way he frequently leads with his head concerns me that he could run head-first into some good shots in the future.
Dennis Bermudez def. Pablo Garza via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3 In a totally non-competitive 30-27 sweep, Bermudez used Garza as his personal grappling dummy for 3 rounds, as he tossed him around the cage at will like a child. Bermudez went a mind-boggling 8 for 8 in takedowns, and many of them were entertaining to watch, as he easily hoisted Garza into the air and brought him down with force. The only real offense of note from Garza was in the first round, where several consecutive upkicks struck Bermudez as he attempted to stack Garza; one of them even dropping him. However, he recovered fast and resumed his domination.
Roland Delorme def. Nick Denis via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), Rd 1 The runner-up for fight of the night in my opinion, Delorme stormed back from the brink of nearly being finished by Denis' strikes to come back and rock Denis with strikes of his own before taking the fight to the ground and gaining mount. With impressive swiftness, Delorme locked in a rear-naked choke while Denis attempted to escape. It appeared time was on Denis' side, but he relinquished the chance to extend the fight and tapped out with a wecond left in the round. Delorme then preceded to proclaim he's the best bantamweight in the world after beating a guy who was slightly more proven than himself (and even that wasn't so much).
Karlos Vemola def. Mike Massenzio via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), Rd 2 First off, Vemola looks to be in great shape at 185; ripped up and much leaner than when he debuted in the UFC at heavyweight. I picked Massenzio to win this fight, and much like the Delorme/Denis fight (and many others on the card), it was playing out just as I thought it would. Then for some reason everything hit a 180 and suddenly my pick is hanging his head in disappointment. For the entire first round, Massenzio outclassed Vemola, scoring with straight punches while avoiding Vemola's wild hooks and stifling his wrestling. Then in the second, Vemola takes a few shots before bringing the fight to the ground, spinning to Massenzio's back, and landing some hard shots before locking in a rear-naked choke with no hooks. Those punches must have really rattled Massenzio for him to get tapped so easily.