Sunday, February 5, 2012

UFC 143 Recap

One of the most anticipated fights of the year has come to a close, and it wasn't what people expected. Although the main event didn't scintillate as much as it was pegged to, the overall card was pretty eventful and entertaining. Of course I'm always entertained when I do well in my picks (9 of 11 overall; 5 perfect). When the dust settled, we were left with a new Interim UFC Welterweight Champion, some new potential contenders in their divisions, as well as a possible retirement. Let's get onto it.

Carlos Condit def. Nick Diaz via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 5 To become the Interim UFC Welterweight Champion
What Happened: For the first time in a very long time, someone decided to fight Diaz intelligently for the duration of the fight. Knowing that trying to stand in the pocket and knock Diaz out was futile, and that taking him down could be dangerous, Condit decided to play the outside game. He used good footwork, leg kicks, and circling out from against the cage to pick Diaz apart over 5 rounds and earn a close, if uneventful (compared to expectations), decision. Diaz announced his retirement after the bout.
Thoughts: Major kudos to Condit for sticking to the gameplan for 5 rounds. He showed everyone how Diaz should be fought by exploiting his plodding footwork and lack of diversity in his striking. It was satisfying for me to see someone get in Diaz's head for a change, instead getting sucked into Diaz's fight like so many before him have. A surprising (and sickening) amount of people are criticizing and even bash Condit for choosing elusiveness over a knockdown drag-out war, but let's get real here. Standing in front of Diaz has been a recipe for disaster for everyone he's faced; Condit avoided a firefight, outstruck Diaz throughout the bout, and most importantly, he WON. I said it following the bout and I'll say it again, criticizing Condit for not standing in front of Diaz is like criticizing someone for stuffing St. Pierre's takedowns instead of pulling guard. And even more disappointing was Diaz's post-fight excusing making/crying/retirement. I'll take the retirement with a grain of salt since he's likely just emotional due to being upset over the fact that someone denied his request to play Rock-em Sock-em Robots. Diaz seems to think that everyone who doesn't stand right in front of him and brawl with him isn't a fighter; nevermind the fact that Condit busted up his face and landed more and better strikes. And he did this all while supposedly running away, which makes it even more impressive! I actually picked Diaz to win by decision (but gave Condit around a 40% chance of winning), but watching this fight I'm glad Condit fought smart and showed how not to fall into Diaz's brawling ways. If he stood in front of Diaz and lost, I bet everyone would be criticizing him for fighting Diaz's fight just like they do whenever Diaz beats someone.
Next for Condit: It looks like Condit could fight to unify the welterweight belts as soon as November; if he wants to wait. Prior to winning the title he expressed disinterest in waiting for St. Pierre should he win the title. We'll see how that pans out.
Next for Diaz: Provided Diaz's retirement doesn't stick, and I suspect it won't, I'd say Josh Koscheck would be an adequate fight for him. If they don't want to match him up with a winner he has several options, from Mike Pierce to the loser of Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez, but Jon Fitch would be the best choice.

Fabricio Werdum def. Roy Nelson via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: Werdum showed a vastly improved, multi-faceted stand up attack, as he battered and bloodied Nelson over 3 rounds with solid striking, most notably knees from the clinch. Nelson had no answer for Werdum's reach and accurate striking, but showed an incredible chin in absorbing the strikes he did.
Thoughts: I expected Werdum to out-strike Nelson over 3 rounds using his reach and speed, but I certainly didn't expect such domination from Werdum. He looked like a major factor in the division with this win, and it'll be interesting to see how he performs from here. As for Nelson, it'd be nice if he could do something to make him memorable other than be overweight and withstand a lot of punishment. He's a solid fighter, but he just can't seem to put it together when it matters. As expected he had trouble finding a home for his right hand because he does little to set it up, and doesn't throw much else, whereas Werdum used all eight points of his muay thai repertoire. Nelson has been steadily losing weight from fight to fight, and many have desired to see him at 205 lbs, though I imagine it's unlikely.
Next for Werdum: Werdum has jumped right into the mix, partly because of how impressively he performed and partly because of how thin the division is. If the rumored Frank Mir vs Cain Velasquez fight doesn't happen, it'd be great to see Werdum take on Mir.
Next for Nelson: Nelson's a tough one to place. He'll always be somewhat highly regarded for hanging tough with elite guys, but he can't beat them. However, when he's pitted against mid to upper-mid tier guys he blows them out of the water. Perhaps the loser of the upcoming Travis Browne vs Chad Griggs fight could suit him, or even the loser of Pat Barry vs Lavar Johnson. If they want to keep him a bit higher on the food chain, Shane Carwin could be next.

Josh Koscheck def. Mike Pierce via Decision (Split), Rd 3
What Happened: Throughout a closely contested fight, the two battled in a relatively measured affair that saw Pierce appear to have a slight edge in the striking exchanges, but two key takedowns for Koscheck may have played a large part in him taking home a close, if not controversial decision.
Thoughts: Score one for the old guard (finally).When the scores were being announced I actually expected Pierce's name to be called on the 3rd scorecard. I personally scored the fight a draw, with the edge, or "must-decision" going to Pierce. Koscheck's takedowns came at key moments which helped him out because he wasn't able to do much with them. He also seemed tentative much of the time with his strikes, and his failure to use jabs to set up his right hand made it easier for Pierce to read his attack. I think it's absurd that some people call this a robbery, but it was a fight that many understandably scored it for Pierce, who should feel no shame in the loss.
Next for Koscheck: Although it wasn't is best performance, we mustn't forget that Pierce is a handful for anyone, so this should still do Koscheck well in working his way back to the top. Johny Hendricks, who recently stunned Koscheck's stablemate Jon Fitch with a 12 second knockout, would be a logical next step. Otherwise, a pairing with Nick Diaz could be appropriate.
Next for Pierce: He should hold his head high with this loss, as he showed that he can continue to hang with the elite of the division, and even beat them in many people's eyes. I could see him fighting the loser of Ellenberger vs Sanchez or even the winner of Thiago Alves vs Martin Kampmann. Personally I'd love to see him against Carlos Eduardo Rocha.

Renan "Barao" Pregado def. Scott Jorgensen via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: Barao utilized great takedown defense and slick distance striking to outpoint a game, but over-matched Jorgensen.
: Jorgensen's best bet was to get the takedown and work his top control, but Barao's takedown defense was sterling, and his ability to use his reach and accuracy to strike from the outside ensured him the fight. Jorgensen wanted to take the fight to the ground so badly he actually pulled guard at one point, and luckily handled himself well enough to stay out of any trouble. Many people pegged Barao to finish Jorgensen via sub in the 1st or 2nd round, but I predicted a decision because I anticipated exactly what I have noticed from Barao: he gets complacent. Just like in his bout with Cole Escovedo, Barao starts off with a bang, but when he saw that he couldn't finish or come close to finishing Jorgensen in the 1st round, he became content with the fact that he could stuff takedowns and out-strike him from a distance. In the latter half of the fight it was Jorgensen who pushed the pace more, and even though he continued to get out-struck, he dished more damage to Barao than we've previously seen. After both decisions Barao has taken in the UFC I'm not convinced he can give Dominick Cruz a run for his money unless he somehow catches him early with something; and I don't see that happening.
Next for Barao: One has to think he's close to earning a title shot. If he doesn't net himself the next title shot after Urijah Faber, he might be a good fit opposite the winner of Michael McDonald vs Miguel Torres as a title eliminator.
Next for Jorgensen: With guys like Cruz and Barao in the division I wouldn't be surprised if Jorgensen never finds his way back to the title picture, but there are still entertaining fights for him. He should be matched up with Brian Bowles to determine who belongs at that spot near the top of the division.

Ed Herman def. Clifford Starks via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke), Rd 2
What Happened: After a 1st round that saw Starks get the better of Herman in the striking department, Herman went back to what got him where he is today: no, not The Ultimate Fighter, but his jiu jitsu. After a nice leg trip to put Starks on his back (which as Joe Rogan points out every time it happens, is not where a wrestler wants to be), Herman quickly goes from side control to mount, and finally gets Stark's back and locks in a rear-naked choke for the tap.
Thoughts: Starks' striking looked much improved, and brought me down to Earth a bit after the Tim Credeur fight had me impressed with Herman's striking improvements. Herman did land some nice shots, but he has a ways to go if he wants to stand with more elite guys in the division. Then again, he was getting tooled standing up by Aaron Simpson until blowing out his knee. Anyway, once the fight hit the ground we saw what Herman was all about, and he didn't disappoint.
Next for Herman: With his 3rd win in a row, Herman is starting to make a splash in the division. There are a few guys in positions similar to his that he could match up decently with, most notably Alan Belcher and Rafael Natal. Sherdog.com made the suggestion of him facing the winner of Brian Stann vs Alessio Sakara, which is also palatable.
Next for Starks: He handled himself well until he was put on his back. He could take on fellow runner-up Michael Kuiper or Brad Tavares.

The Prelims
Dustin Poirier def. Max Holloway via Submission (Triangle Armbar), Rd 1
I viewed this as a highly questionable bit of matchmaking in that Poirier should a couple wins at most away from a title shot, and they give him a young 4-0 prospect. Holloway surprisingly handled himself very well on the feet, even overwhelming Poirier at times and forcing him to look to take the fight to the ground. But once he did, the difference in skill was vast. After a beautiful transition from an armbar to a triangle choke, Poirier rolled into a mounted triangle and hyper-extended Hollaway's arm to coax the tap. Great (and expected) finish to a pointless fight.
Edwin Figueroa def. Alex Caceres via Decision (Split), Rd 3
Probably the most controversial fight on the card, Caceres out-struck Figueroa overall and put on a grappling clinic for the majority of the fight. However, a hard kick to the groin in the 1st led to a strong warning, and another in the 2nd led to referee Herb Dean making a head-scratching 2-point deduction from Caceres. That questionable bit of refereeing cost Caceres the fight, as he definitely took the last 2 rounds, and may have taken the 1st as well through grappling despite being dropped by a head kick. Apparently two judges gave that 1st round to Figueroa, which isn't outlandish, but Dean's ridiculous penalty caused the better fighter to lose. This fight should have been a majority draw with a reasonable 1-point deduction.
Matt Brown def. Chris Cope via TKO (Punches), Rd 2
One of my perfect calls right here. I knew Brown was either going to overwhelm him in the 1st and knock him out in the 2nd, or overwhelm him, gas, and get submitted. Since Cope doesn't really have a submission game I banked on the former. I like Cope, but his problem is that he's a pure striker who's striking and striking defense aren't all that great. He doesn't have much to fall back on when he faces someone who can out-strike him, and unless that changes he'll continue to be at the bottom of 170.
Matt Riddle def. Henry Martinez via Decision (Split), Rd 3
First off, I was very impressed with Martinez. The guy used to fight at 145, usually fights at 155, and did very well against a very big 170-pounder. He showed solid counter-striking and put together solid combinations to clearly take the 1st round. He did very well in the 2nd as well, but then Riddle began to impress me as well with his ability to adjust to the situation. He stopped throwing single shots and let his striking go a bit more so that Martinez had a hard time countering him. After a close 2nd round due to a late flurry by Riddle, the 3rd round was all Riddle, as he appeared to be the fresher of the two, greatly out-landed Martinez, and scored a couple takedowns. A fight I thought would be a dominant decision for Riddle turned into a close, entertaining fight.
Rafael Natal def. Michael Kuiper via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
This was most disappointing to me, as I thought Kuiper was a pretty live underdog and picked him to take a decision. Natal hadn't impressed me in the UFC thus far, and I thought Kuiper's judo base would prevent him from being taken down repeatedly. It didn't. Natal also didn't seem to gas as hard as he usually does in the later moments. The most frustrating thing for me to watch was Kuiper taking shots from Natal's inferior, labor intensive technique. I thought he could have acquitted himself much better on the feet, and when he finally did drop Natal and get a chance to finish, he was too gassed to seal the deal.
Stephen Thompson def. Dan Stittgen via KO (Head Kick), Rd 1
From the very start of this fight it was obvious Stittgen had no business in there with Thompson, who's polished karate-based attack made him look like a fish out of water. Thompson's strikes were accurate and effective, but not very damaging; that is, until he threw a beautiful front-leg head kick that looped around Stittgen's shoulder and hit him on the button, putting him out immediately. Very impressive debut for Thompson, and we'll see how his striking holds up against better competition. I'm not sure if he'll want to keep his hands so low and throw so many kicks against more qualified opposition.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

UFC on Fox 2 Re-cap

The UFC's second offering on Fox delivered where the first one could not in that there was significantly more than a minute of actual fighting, and substantially less pre-fight build up. It's a shame that all three main card fights went to decision, and that most of the excitement and entertainment took place on the undercard. All in all it was a solid offering, although I didn't do nearly as well picking fights for this event (6 for 10) as I did for UFC on FX 1 (9 for 10). A lot of questions were answered and a couple title shots are set. Let's get to it. Since there were only three main card fights, I took the liberty of choosing a couple undercard fights I enjoyed to cover in detail.

Rashad Evans def. Phil Davis via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 5
What Happened: Evans more or less dominated Davis everywhere; out-striking, out-wrestling, and out-grappling him for a large majority of the 25 minute encounter. Davis looked solid in the first round, but a takedown by Evans off of a Davis kick followed by a mounted crucifix tempered Davis' striking and wrestling considerably. The result was a lopsided decision for Evans.
Thoughts: I said it when the fight was originally booked (followed by relief when Davis pulled out due to injury), and I said it again when the fight was re-booked: Davis is not ready for a huge push. This fight was a nice gauge of where he is, but I didn't have much doubt Evans would just be too seasoned and well-rounded for Davis at this point. It's a shame this was a 5-rounder, and not Sonnen vs Bisping, because the first round showed us exactly what the rest of the fight would look like. Nonetheless, it was a learning experience for Davis, as his holes have been exposed and defined, so he'll know what to focus on and improve. Davis has the potential to be a major title contender; his time just isn't now. Evans looked solid and showed he has the conditioning to go 5 rounds, as he has recently been known to slow down considerably around the 3rd round in fights.
Next for Evans: A light heavyweight title tilt with current kingpin Jon Jones.
Next for Davis: Now that he has a better idea of what he needs to improve on to be a top 205er, Davis should still be fighting upper-mid level guys. He could take on the loser of the upcoming Quinton Jackson vs Ryan Bader fight, or take on a solid upper level gatekeeper in the division like Forrest Griffin or Rich Franklin.

Chael Sonnen def. Michael Bisping via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: Sonnen relentlessly pressured Bisping, who spent too much time in close quarters to really let his footwork dictate the fight. Not too much damage was done to either man, and Bisping kept the fight off the ground for extended periods in the first two rounds, but in the third round Sonnen took him down and put his stamp on the fight. His takedowns and control granted him a close decision.
Thoughts: Bisping looked very good overall in the fight, and I'm glad for that because I've always said people disrespect his skills just because they don't like his personality. Bisping has always had impeccable all around skills; technical stand up, solid takedown defense, and crafty guard, and a great ability to get back to his feet. He showed pretty much all of this against Sonnen, and hopefully people will finally give him his respect even in defeat since he made the fight much more competitive than many thought he would. Sonnen was his usual aggressive self, though he looked considerably less polished in the stand up than he usually does. However, his flailing technique did get him on the inside throughout the fight, so I can't knock him too much; but he will need to bring a bit more to the table against Silva.
Next for Sonnen: His workmanlike victory gives him his much desired rematch with the reigning middleweight champion Anderson Silva, and Sonnen will need to bring his A game, because the fight is likely to take place in Brazil.
Next for Bisping: Bisping put on a solid performance, and shouldn't fall far down the ladder. A fight with fellow runner-up Demian Maia; a fight that was originally scheduled for this event before Munoz pulled out 11 days prior with an elbow injury.

Chris Weidman def. Demian Maia via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: In a rather tepid bout, Weidman used well-placed takedowns to take a decision, almost by default. The two were almost even on the feet, with Weidman edging Maia out with slightly cleaner striking, and they were mostly a stalemate on the ground.
Thoughts: Worst fight on the card, by far. Both men looked exhausted partway through the 2nd round, and were winging slow looping shots at each other. Maia resorted for shooting lazy takedowns from feet away, and in general just looked lethargic. Weidman took the fight on 11 days' notice and had to cut a lot of weight so he has a bit of an excuse for the performace, but what about Maia? He had a fight scheduled the entire time and still looked to have terrible cardio. Terrible fight.
Next for Weidman: Although it wasn't a very impressive performance, it's easily the most important win of his career, and will likely vault him into the mix. Rousimar Palhares would make for a great match up. Weidman's not afraid to go to the ground with great grapplers, and we should see how that eagerness plays off against a man who could wear a necklace of legs.
Next for Maia: A perplexedly bad performance for Maia, and that's saying something considering the fact that he hasn't overwhelmingly impressed in quite some time. Having split his last four and gone to decision in his last seven, he has not looked the same since his first career loss: a knockout against Nate Marquardt. He has played things very safe since then, preferring positional control and distance striking to taking risks to finish as he did before. It may draw parallels to Georges St. Pierre post-Matt Serra knockout; except St. Pierre hasn't lost since adopting that style. Maia needs to get back to basics, and he'll need a step down to get back on track. CB Dollaway or Dongi Yang might be appropriate to get him back on track. Or better yet, what's Jason Miller doing?

Evan Dunham def. Nik Lentz via TKO (Doctor Stoppage), Rd 2
What Happened: A wild and entertaining fight saw both fighters have their moments, scoring shots standing and working their wrestling. Lentz eschewed his usual methodical grinding approach in favor for an all-out brawl. After a back and forth 2 rounds which saw Dunham land some hard elbows in the guard before the bell, the fight was up for grabs heading into the third. Unfortunately, a bad cut under Lentz's left eye was rapidly swelling his eye shut, and the cageside doctor had to call the bout.
Thoughts: Once known for boring and plodding (and winning) in his fights, Lentz has to have gained some new fans with his new risk taking style. However, it has yet to give him a victory in his last 3 fights. It's unfortunate that this fight had to be stopped because he may have very well been up 2 rounds to none on the cards. Dunham looked impressive and scrappy as usual, and overcame his usual slow start to turn it on in the second. Both guys looked like solid 155ers tonight, and although Dunham walked away with the W, Lentz put on a great performance; and still walked away with some extra change after winning Fight of the Night. Odd that some people still label Lentz boring when 2 of his last 3 fights have won the award.
Next for Dunham: Dunham is working his way back to the top 10 after hitting a snag, and continues to look solid. I mentioned after UFC 142 that Edson Barboza needs to face someone well rounded, who has the skills to really test his wrestling as well as his submissions; Dunham may be that guy.
Next for Lentz: I'll be angry if Lentz is cut after this loss. Even though he's hit a rough patch, you can't deny the fact that he went unbeaten in his first 7 UFC fights. On top of that, he has finally shed his "boring" label in a lot of people's eyes. Now he just needs to find that happy medium that allows him to be exciting and win at the same time. Lentz's last few fights have really brought forth the notion that the size he gives up works against him. Although he's got great technique and wrestling, bigger guys have been able to take him down fairly regularly as well. A drop to 145 may be in order, where he won't be at a size disadvantage and his wrestling may be even more effective. If he stays at 155, I'd actually like to see him take on George Sotiropoulos. Where has that guy been?

Lavar Johnson def. Joey Beltran via KO (Punches), Rd 1
What Happened: Johnson showed his reach, size, and power advantage early, dropping Beltran with a body punch in the opening seconds. From there it was all Johnson; landing stiff jabs almost at will and battering Beltran around the cage. Beltran found his mark with a few combinations, but nothing of significance. Johnson went in for the kill at the end of the first round, drilling Beltran with uppercuts until he was out on his feet and slowly slumping down face-first on the canvas.
Thoughts: I knew Johnson would be coming in the bigger man, but I honestly expected Beltran to weather the early storm and turn it up. Johnson has shown questionable cardio and takedown defense, and an utter lack of a ground game. For his UFC debut he seemed relaxed and confident, managing a more deliberate pace while still scoring with big punches. It was an unexpectedly impressive performance from him. Beltran just couldn't get it together, and his normally granite chin just couldn't stand up to the power Johnson wields. It was the first time he'd ever been stopped by strikes, and it was a doosey.
Next for Johnson: I know he's coming off a loss, but the thought of Johnson vs Shane Carwin looks pretty awesome. Not that it would make too much sense. Perhaps the winner of the upcoming Stefan Struve vs Dave Herman fight, or Gabriel Gonzaga if they want to see if his wrestling or ground game have really improved.
Next for Beltran: Tough loss for Beltran, but I think he could live to fight another day in the UFC. He could take on fellow loser on the night, John Olav Einemo. Better yet, he did drop a considerable amount of weight for this fight and he's still carrying some extra heft. It would be smart for him to try the cut to 205.

The Prelims
Mike Russow def. John Olav Einemo via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
Russow takes home a workmanlike decision with little action. It was the stinker on the card until Maia-Weidman took that title by lopsided decision. Einemo showed flashes of goodness, but conditioning as well as experience problems prevented him from capitalizing on some opportunities. Russow has quietly put together quite the streak (4 straight in the UFC; 11 straight overall), but his style probably won't endear him to fans. Einemo shows promise, but needs to work on his cardio and clean up some iffy grappling tendencies he brings into the sport with him.
Cub Swanson def. George Roop via TKO (Punches), Rd 2
These two brought it like I knew they would, and I actually had this long tabbed as fight of the night until Dunham-Lentz came along and snatched that away. It started off well for Roop, who used his range well to keep Swanson from landing well, but Swanson soon started to find his range and take advantage of Roop's questionable defense. In the second he answered that questionable defense by landing an absolute bomb that sent Roop's mouthpiece rocketing out of his face, the end was academic.
Charles Oliveira def. Eric Wiselt via Submission (Modified Calf Slicer), Rd 1
Oliveira's featherweight debut didn't last long, and neither did Eric Wisely's streak of not being finished in 6 defeats. Oliveira quickly went to work on a heel hook, and once that was defended, he locked up the leg and grabbed a hold of Wisely's back, pulling him down while still triangling the trapped leg. This interesting variation on the calf slicer left Wisely to live up to his name nad choose to opt out of the fight before risking major damage. Not only did Oliveira take home Submission of the Night, but now enjoys the distinction of owning the first and only calf slicer victory in UFC history. So in case you're not familiar with a calf slicer:


Michael Johnson def. Shane Roller via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
Honestly I picked Roller to take this one because Johnson is good at finding ways to lose, but he looked very much improved in this fight. His stand up was sharper and his footwork was on point, leaving Roller constantly a step behind him. However, he almost live up to his aforementioned reputation in the 3rd when he allowed Roller to take his back, lock in a body triangle, and threaten him with chokes and shots from back mount. In the end, Johnson kept his composure and survived to take home the decision based on winning the first 2 rounds.
Chris Camozzi def. Dustin Jacoby via Submission (Guillotine), Rd 3
The only fight of the night I wasn't able to see, this one mostly gets a mention because I dismissively predicted that Camozzi would win by submission in the 3rd round...and he totally did. Why can't I predict more of the fights I actually care about so flawlessly?

Saturday, January 14, 2012

UFC 142 Recap

Another exciting night of fights has come to a close, and I have to say it was the worst night of picks for me that I can remember. Whether from last minute mind changes, misinformation, hesitation, or bad calls, things just wouldn't go my way tonight. But enough of the pity party, let's get on with the recap.

Jose Aldo def. Chad Mendes via Knockout(knee), Rd 1
What Happened: Despite a fence grabbing offense, Aldo's takedown defense was sterling against Mendes. When Mendes finally got his hands on Aldo, he released a waistlock and shot in, only to be met by a perfectly timed knee from Aldo that dropped him. Aldo swarmed briefly, but there was no more offense needed.
Thoughts: Aldo has always had incredible takedown defense, but after his last two fights I thought Mendes would be able to pull him down. Once it was clear that wasn't the case, I knew Mendes was in for a long (or short) night. Dropping some muscle mass apparently worked well for Aldo, who looked much less drained by the weight cut and didn't settle for letting his opponent lean on him. He had great sense to throw that knee, knowing that Mendes was going to shoot as he turned around. I thought this could look like Faber's fight, but the difference in striking skill between Faber and Mendes was clear; and Mendes' better wrestling had no effect on Aldo. Great to see the champ return to form.
Next for Aldo: Aldo is the only champion where at this moment I can't think of a single legit challenger for Aldo; and not just guys who can pose a threat to Aldo, but guys who are actually in line for a title shot. Initially I might have suggested the winner of Dustin Poirer vs Eric Koch, but Koch's injury puts that bout off for now. Other than that, a more likely suggestion might be Hatsu Hioki should he get past Bart Palaszewski. However, there isn't a guy out there that I don't think would get crushed by Aldo at this point.
Next for Mendes: Though still a top featherweight, Mendes had absolutely nothing for Aldo. If Poirer vs Koch does happen, he may be tabbed to face the loser of that or Hioki vs Palaszewski.

Vitor Belfort def. Anthony Johnson via Submission (Rear-naked choke), Rd 1
What Happened: Johnson came in aggressive, throwing wild strikes and closing the distance quickly. He took Belfort to the ground twice, but two curious stand ups played in Belfort's favor. It wasn't long before Belfort found his rhythm, and made Johnson pay for his recklessness. Gassed from the pace he was pushing and the punches he was taking, Johnson resorted to shooting desperate takedowns. Belfort sprawled and brawled, working his way to Johnson's back before sinking in a rear-naked choke for the tap.
Thoughts: I have to say, I was pretty satisfied to see Johnson get his comeuppance after missing weight by 11 lbs...after moving up in weight. The fact that he missed weight so grossly was bad enough, but his unapologetic behavior following the debacle really sealed his fate for me, and showed how unprofessional and immature he is. I actually had him to win the fight initially, but after his weight cutting snafu something told me his performance would be sub par. Johnson has a ton of ability and potential, and it's a shame to see it wasted on someone who doesn't have the mental capacity to take advantage of it. As for Belfort, he impressed me with his composure from the bottom but other than that, vintage Vitor...minus the submission.
Next for Belfort: He's already signed on to coach TUF Brazil opposite Wanderlei Silva, and the two will meet in Rio De Janeiro this June.
Next for Johnson: I think there's one more cut left for Johnson: a cut from the UFC's roster. There is a high likelihood it will happen, and if so he deserves it. He needs to show that he's mature enough to be in the UFC before he comes back. If for some reason he's allowed to stay he should suffer a marked demotion; the loser of Brian Stann vs Alessio Sakara or Yushin Okami vs Tim Boestch would suffice.

Rousimar Palhares def. Mike Massenzio via Submission (Heel hook), Rd 1
What Happened: Palhares did what he does best. He shot in on Massenzio, pulled guard and went straight for the leg. Once he gets a hold of it, it's usually a matter of time before the fight is over; and it was no different in this fight.
Thoughts: Everyone knows it's coming, but not many can stop it. That's what happens when you're in the guard of a sinewy freak of nature wired specifically for ripping your leg off frothing at the mouth for some ambulatory abolition. I knew it was going to happen, but I thought Massenzio's height and reach advantage, as well as his own grappling acumen would at least allow him to stave it off for a bit longer.
Next for Palhares: One has to think Palhares is approaching the door to a title shot. He's 7-2 in the UFC and has only lost to Nate Marquardt and Dan Henderson, both of whom were top 5 middleweights when they fought. He should fight the winner of the upcoming Demian Maia vs Michael Bisping match up to see who will be next in line after the winner of Chael Sonnen vs Mark Munoz.
Next for Massenzio: Massenzio has had a rough UFC run, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's cut following this loss, but if one thing could save him it could be his impressive decision win over Steve Cantwell in his previous bout. If he stays around he could take on CB Dollaway, Jorge Rivera, or Tom Lawlor

Carlo Prater def. Erick Silva via Disqualification (Punches to the back of the head), Rd 1
What Happened: Some BS, that's what. Prater immediately eats a knee to the body and goes down for a single. Silva starts raining hammerfists and Prater tries to drive for the takedown, but the punches are too much and the fight is stopped. What looked to be a clear TKO victory for Silva controversially turns out to be a DQ win for Prater, because Silva landed punches to the back of Prater's head.
Thoughts: I know refs are human and make mistakes, but this was a terrible call and should have been a no contest. I'm not one of the people who say Silva barely landed to the back of the head; from what I saw he landed several (possibly) illegal shots, and I was saying this even before the stoppage or the DQ announcement. What garnered my ire was that Prater couldn't continue due to an injury sustained completely independent of the illegal blows, and yet it was still ruled a DQ win for him. If he was injured or knoced out due to the punches in question, DQ Silva; otherwise, it's clearly a no contest. If Prater can continue, deduct a point from Silva. Talk to the injured fighter before making your decision. It's not rocket science.
Next for Prater: This should be viewed as a loss for him because he was clearly the lesser fighter. He should fight Luis Ramos, another Silva victim.
Next for Silva: I fully expect this loss to be treated as a win, but with the way things went it's hard for me to place Silva in the division; so I'll defer to Sherdog.com's suggestion that he face the winner of Josh Neer vs Duane Ludwig.

Edson Barboza def. Terry Etim via Knockout (Spinning wheel kick), Rd 1
What Happened: Etim looked good early in the fight, using great footwork and combinations to keep Barboza honest. Then came the leg kicks, which slowed Etim down considerably and rendered his output more conservative. The fight looked to be going in the direction of competitive decision for Barboza when he launched an incredible spinning wheel kick, catching Etim in the jaw with his heel. Etim was out immediately, and fell backward as stiffly as a freshly chopped tree.
Thoughts: Amazing knockout for Barboza, the first of it's kind in the UFC. Barboza has always been regarded a great prospect, but lacked that defining performance in the UFC to really distinguish him from the rest of the pack. In a way, this was that performance. I say "in a way" because no one knows who Mike Lullo is, I thought he lost to Anthony Njokuani, barely scraped by against Ross Pearson, and was far from dominant in this fight until the KO. I'm sure many will forget how relatively unspectacular he's looked until now due to this knockout, but with time he could be a major player in the division.
Next for Barboza: He's done well against the strikers they've put him up against, but it's about time we see how he deals with a good wrestler. Etim revealed that his takedown defense could use work, and although he got back to his feet quickly, Etim is no wrestler. He may not be able to spring up so readily against a good wrestler. Once again I'll defer to Sherdog because I like him facing the winner of Evan Dunham vs Nik Lentz, and I'll throw my own in there with Gleison Tibau.
Next for Etim: Etim just can't seem to crack the upper crust of the division, even though he has excellent stand up and grappling. Yves Edwards or rematch with Sam Stout might make for a good match up.

Prelim Quick Hits
Thiago Tavares def. Sam Stout via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 1: A very closely contested fight, but Tavares didn't do much to win it but narrowly take two rounds on the judges scorecards. Stout had the most significant action of the bout, rocking Tavares at the end of the fight. Tavares took the first with takedowns, Stout clearly took the third, and the second was the toss up. I personally had it 10-10 for a draw.
Gabriel Gonzaga def. Edinaldo Oliveira via Submission (Rear-naked Choke), Rd 1: Gonzaga is back, and I knew Oliveira would be shown to be overrated. Everyone made a deal of him being a major training partner of current heavyweight champ Junior dos Santos, but the guy has proven nothing in his actual fight career. Never jump on a guy's bandwagon because of what he does in training.
Yuri Alcantara def. Michihiro Omigawa via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3: As a huge fan of Omigawa this one had me a bit sour, but Alcantara showed some solid skills and Omigawa gained even more of my respect for being tough as nails. He survived an armbar at the end of the first round in which his arm was badly hyperextended, and went on to finish the fight like nothing happened. Unfortunately, he didn't get the win, and could very well be on his way out of the UFC.
Mike Pyle def. Ricardo Funch via TKO (Knee and Punches), Rd 1: Pyle provided tonight's squash match (since Silva vs Prater was screwed up) at the expense of a surprisingly-back-in-the-UFC Funch. Funch never belonged in the UFC.
Felipe Arantes def. Antonio Carvalho via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3: On paper this was a fight Carvalho should have won. He's faced better opposition and shown better skills. Maybe it was Octagon jitters, but Carvalho just couldn't get it together tonight, and looked stiff and tight on all his strikes. He showed that if he could bring it to the ground, he had a clear advantage, but after his initial display he couldn't muster up any meaningful offense. Hopefully he does well in his next outing because I like the guy.

Saturday, December 31, 2011

UFC 141 Recap

I really wanted to do an entry for UFC 140, which was one of the best events of 2011, but was just plain too busy; so I had to get this one out. That urgency was just exacerbated by the fact that we have all witnessed Brock Lesnar's last fight in the octagon, which was of no surprise given how trying times have been for him in the past couple years. Overall the event was decent; it started off pretty slow but picked up when the main card started. I predicted a decision-heavy event and it definitely delivered on that front. IT also delivered in the realm of upsets, including a major one that definitely makes the welterweight division more interesting. Here we go.


Alistair Overeem def. Brock Lesnar via TKO (Liver Kick and Punches), Rd 1
What Happened: Lesnar threw out his usual plan of bull rushing at the bell in favor of a more calculated approach, but it was all for naught. After stuffing an early takedown, Overeem proceeded to walk Lesnar down, throwing punches and tagging him in the process with hard knees to the body. A well-placed body kick spelled the end for Lesnar, as he collapsed against the cage and covered up as Overeem rained punches. Most of them were blocked, but the end was academic; Lesnar was done.
Thoughts: I went back and forth on picking for this fight because of the multitude of variables involved. Aside from the typical "anything can happen when heavyweights get in there" factor, there was Lesnar's 14 month layoff and his bout with diverticulitis, as well as Overeem's lackluster last showing against Fabricio Werdum and his recent drama with the NSAC. In the end I settled on Overeem by TKO, and by fight time I felt confident in that choice. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Lesnar's MMA wrestling is overrated. Guys like Jon Fitch, Cain Velasquez, Cole Konrad, Chael Sonnen, Jacob Volkmann, etc are very successful with their wrestling because the are relentless in the pursuit of a takedown. If you stuff one, they'll transition to another and pressure you the whole time. Lesnar is in the same boat as guys like Mark Munoz and Johny Hendricks in that they tend to give up after they are initially stuffed and back up. This is why they struggle working a wrestling-centric top control game. The difference with Lesnar is that unlike a Munoz or Hendricks, he doesn't have the striking skill offense or defense to make up for it. If he can't take someone down quickly, he gets hit; and when he gets hit, he doesn't react well. Once Overeem easily stuffed him and hit him with that first body shot Lesnar looked lost and hopeless, and I knew it was just a matter of time because Lesnar wasn't going to really push the pace and make the fight ugly.
Next for Overeem: Junior dos Santos for the title. Overeem made a bold statement in disposing of Lesnar and making it look easy. Overeem is one of the best strikers at heavyweight, and this upcoming title fight will likely settle the question of who the best striker in the division really is.
Next for Lesnar: Sitting on the couch in his huge ranch laughing at all the haters who view his MMA stint as a failure when he did in 7 fights what most guys won't do in their entire careers, and made millions doing it. He may not have earned his initial title shot, and he may have trouble taking a hit, but Lesnar chose to take the hardest possible road in this sport and did pretty damn well considering he came into the game late and with wrestling as his sole skill. The man deserves respect.

Nate Diaz def. Donald Cerrone via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: It was a slugfest, and Diaz's boxing proved superior. He landed punches in high volume at will, and although Cerrone had some success with leg and body kicks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, he couldn't do enough to avoid a lopsided decision loss.
Thoughts: This was considered an upset and I'm not entirely sure why. I picked Cerrone along with most people, but I couldn't believe so many were writing Diaz off. I might write him off against a great wrestler, but not a striker. Now although I acknowledge that Diaz is looking more and more like his brother with each fight (which is a very good thing), something seemed very off with Cerrone. Though he's not usually a paragon of striking defense, this time around he seemed to just allow Diaz to hit him constantly. Cerrone has always had a habit that I didn't like: he tends to close the distance by just walking into his opponents instead of moving in quickly. Thus far it has done him well (I usually cringe a little when he does it), but against someone he didn't have such a height and reach advantage over it proved to be part of his undoing. There were several occasions where he walked right up to Diaz to close the distance and took 3 and 4 punch combinations right to the face. Overall, it was just a bad performance for Cerrone, and a great one for Nate. Still not a fan of Nate or his brother, but I can't deny that they are great at what they do.
Next for Diaz: It's about time he starts getting mentioned in the title conversation. He should fight the winner of Anthony Pettis vs Joe Lauzon, in what could possibly be a title eliminator.
Next for Cerrone: Taking 5 fights in 10 months may have just been too much for Cerrone, but I think he should come back stronger. The loser of the aforementioned Pettis vs Lauzon fight, or perhaps that beef he has with Cole miller should finally come to a head.

Johny Hendricks def. Jon Fitch via KO (Punch), Rd 1
What Happened: It only took 12 seconds, so not much. Fitch let his guard down and caught a thunderous left hand which had him out immediately. Fitch took another bomb and immediately sought to recover and look for a tie-up, but he was done.
Thoughts: Not much to say about the fight itself, but this is bound to happen when you've had as much success as Fitch. MMA is unpredictable and anyone can get caught; you just have to get to the top before that happens. It's difficult for guys like him (unmarketable for title shots) because they have to win more fights to get another shot at the belt. Fitch's 5-0-1 record since his last title bid would be more than enough for a marketable contender to get another shot, but instead he had to keep fighting, and like anyone else it was a matter of time before he lost. I thought Hendricks had a decent style for stifling Fitch's game, but this was a huge upset.
Next for Hendricks: He has catapulted himself to the contender's list with this emphatic win. He could face the winner of Jake Ellenberger vs Diego Sanchez in a title eliminator. If that winner is catapulted to a title shot Hendricks could fight the Josh Koscheck, provided he gets past Mike Pierce in February.
Next for Fitch: Anyone can get caught, and this loss doesn't take away from the fact that Fitch is an amazing 13-2-1 in the UFC. He is still a major player in the division. He should take on the loser of Sanchez vs Ellenberger, Martin Kampmann should he fall to Thiago Alves, or even the loser of the upcoming interim title fight between Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit.

Alexander Gustafsson def. Vladimir Matyushenko via TKO (punches), Rd 1
What Happened: Gustafsson made short work of Matyushenko dropping him with a jab as Matyushenko jumped in sloppily with a strike of his own, and sealing the deal with punches on the turtling veteran.
Thoughts: Gustafsson is looking more and more like the prospect to watch at 205. Matyushenko made a quick but glaring mistake and Gustafsson capitalized on it big time. It seems Matyushenko became a little too comfortable with how well he has been doing in the striking department and his carelessness really cost him in this bout, similar to Mark Hominick's blunder against Chan Sung Jung. Gustafsson is showing smooth striking, and with his ever evolving grappling game he could be a force to be reckoned with in the near future.
Next for Gustafsson: Gustafsson is arguably the top prospect in the UFC that has not been booked in a high profile fight, so I think the UFC should take care in how they match him up. They rushed Jon Jones and he ran away with it; we will soon see how Phil Davis does; and I think Gustafsson has at least a couple fights left before going high profile. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira seems to be viewed as a gauge for up and comers, and if that doesn't work out then Brandon Vera might make a great next fight for him.
Next for Matyushenko: One of the premier veterans at 205, it's clear he won't make a run at the title but he can still serve as a stern test for any prospect. A respectable 4-2 in his recent UFC run, his only losses have come to the current champ and Gustafsson, and he has looked very impressive in his wins. Kyle Kingsbury or Krzysztof Soszynski could be next for "the Janitor."

Jimy Hettes def. Nam Phan via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: From bell to bell Hettes completely dominated Phan, taking him down almost at will, landing hard punches from the top, and threatening with submissions. Phan simply had nothing for him and couldn't muster any meaningful offense on the feet.
Thoughts: Nam Phan is a blackbelt? A purplebelt, Hettes made him look more like a "blechbelt." Hettes was my underdog pick for this fight, but I had no clue he would dominate Phan so thoroughly (although I've thought Phan was overrate since even before he fought in the UFC; it was the basis for picking Hettes over him). He's utterly relentless in his pursuit of takedowns, he's got great timing for judo throws and sweep takedowns, his ground and pound is nasty, and his overall grappling is very solid. And he's only 24. Watch out for this kid.
Next for Hettes: Hettes has risen as a great new prospect at 145, and should be built up carefully. Sherdog.com suggested the winner of Jonathan Brookins vs Rahni Yahya, and I think that would be a good choice, as it would be a steady increase in competition and either would provide for entertaining grappling.
Next for Phan: Just 1-3 in the UFC, it wouldn't surprise me a whole lot if Phan was served his walking papers, but I don't really expect it. This latest loss was only decisive one, as he was outright robbed in his UFC debut against Leonard Garcia and fought to a very close decision with Mike Brown. If he gets another chance in the Octagon they might put him in with Josh Grispi in a loser leaves town fight.

Prelim Notes
- Ross Pearson took a decision over Junior Assuncao that was apparently not as close as I made it out to be. I feared Assuncao might squeak by on the scorecards (I scored it 29-28 Pearson) from scoring ineffectual takedowns and clinching a lot, but thank god the judges made the right decision, as Pearson tagged him numerous times in the 2nd and 3rd. One judge and two members of the Sherdog theme didn't seem to think it was all that contentious however, as they scored it 30-27 for Pearson.
- Danny Castillo took a close split decision over Anthony Njokuani. Njokuani showed improved defensive wrestling and ground game compared to his previous few fights against wrestlers.
- Dong Hyun Kim took a nip-tuck decision over Sean Pierson in which he showed improved stand up. Pierson, who in his previous two UFC appearances seemed content to slug it out on the feet, showed some impressive grappling but ultimately came up short.
- Jacob Volkmann used superior grappling to take a one-sided decision over Efrain Escudero. Escudero closed out the fight with a very tight brabo choke locked in, but Volkmann somehow survived for a very tense minute. In all three rounds, Escudero jumped into guillotines early and ended up on his back for extended periods. Stupid. Does he train with Teiquan Zhang or what?
- Diego Nunes used his superior striking and reach to take a decision over Manny Gamburyan. Though he was hurt in the 2nd, Nunes did enough to convincingly take the 1st and the 3rd rounds. This is Gamburyan's 3rd straight loss, so it'll be interesting to see where he goes from here.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

UFC 139 Recap

What an event! UFC 139 housed one of my favorite cards of the year, and that's saying a good deal. A perfect mix of competitive decisions and finishes, topped off by what could easily be called the fight of the year. So without further ado...

Dan Henderson def. Mauricio Rua via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 5
What Happened: A fight many thought would end in a knockout turned into perhaps the greatest 5 round war in recent memory. Rua survived scare after scare at the behest of Henderson's lethal right hand and kept pushing forward. It nearly paid off in the final two rounds, especially in the 5th where Rua mounted Henderson 5 times and utterly dominated him; but it was too little, too late. Henderson took the fight 48-47 on all 3 scorecards.
Thoughts: First off, I'll say that it looks like the curse of Fedor has been lifted. Everyone who has beaten or performed well against Fedor has gone on to lose immediately following. Second, I scored this fight a draw, and I think it's the best example of a draw since Edgar vs Maynard 2. Hendo performed great in the first 3 rounds and had Rua in serious trouble on a few occasions, but Rua always put out enough offense to ward off a 10-8, even wobbling Henderson a few times. Rua definitely took the last 2 rounds, but round 5 was a definite 10-8, and I found it odd that none of the judges saw constantly mounting and completely dominating your opponent, even causing the referee to threaten to stop the fight, anything but a 10-8 round. This scoring was echoed by most MMA news outlets, and I felt a draw was the most fitting end to the fight, even if it does throw things out of whack in the division. What really bugged me was not that the judges gave the fight to Henderson, but that not one of them scored the final round a 10-8. Ridiculous.
I felt the fight could have gone much differently if Rua respected Henderson's power early and decided to focus on slowing him down instead of rushing into the pocket to exchange. It looked to be another case of Rua following a great performance with a terrible one, but he came back to show why he has one of the best chins in the sport, and that he can dig deep and not only come back from the brink of defeat but come back and bring the fight to his opponent. In the end both men should get a ton of respect for their performances.
Next for Henderson: Henderson is in the interesting position of now being considered a contender in both the middleweight and light heavyweight divisions. As of my latest findings, he seems to be leaning towards 205 lb king Jon Jones (should he get past Lyoto Machida), which I think might be a good choice, considering how drawn out he is cutting 20 lbs at 41 years of age.
Next for Rua: This was a tough loss for Rua, but he really shouldn't feel too badly about it because he showed the heart of a champion and let us all know why he is still considered a top 205er. The only fight that makes sense for him at this point is a rematch against Quinton Jackson, who is coming off a loss of his own. It's unlikely the fight could be booked for the Japan show, but that would be perfect.

Wanderlei Silva def. Cung Le via TKO (Knees and Punches), Rd 2
What Happened: Le started off as many expected: winging flashy kicks and seemingly baffling Silva. Le scored with several kicks, and even dropped Silva with a a spinning backfist, but his flashy offense took a toll as the fight wore on. Noticeably slower in the second stanza, Le became a much less mobile target and vintage Silva emerged, rushing him with wild flurries. After dropping Le with a straight right, Silva furiously swarmed Le with punches and vicious knees that absolutely destroyed Le's nose. The stoppage came soon after.
Thoughts: As a huge fan, I absolutely love that Silva won this fight. It took some of the sting out of the Rua loss (of whom I am also a huge fan). I've said for a long time that Le's style will give him problems against more legitimate competition that can survive his kicks. He throws too many energy sapping kicks, and if he can't put his opponent away he slows down, which is dangerous against someone like Silva, who had a lot of trouble with Le in the first round, but fought smart in deciding to swarm late in the 2nd after Le had slowed down. Still, Silva's performance wasn't one that should convince anyone that he's back in a big way; it was a great win, but Le isn't the hardest hitter and I've considered him a overrated ever since his fight with Frank Shamrock. While I thought Le could walk away with a victory, I didn't think he had what it took to knock Silva out. I thought he'd kick his way to a decision.
Next for Silva: I would be ecstatic if Silva decided to call it a career and go out on a dominant win that hearkened back to his days as an unstoppable Pride champion, but I know that won't happen. Sherdog suggested he get the winner of Anthony Johnson vs Vitor Belfort, which I think is utterly ridiculous. Le isn't even top 20, and Belfort is likely a couple wins away from a title shot. If Johnson beats Vitor, he's gotta be in the mix. Silva is not. They seem to have some obsession with Silva being fed to Vitor and I get it (because they have beef), but it's not smart matchmaking. Silva should get the winner of Jarred Hamman vs Constantinos Phillipou.
Next for Le: He might consider retirement too. Le will never be able to compete at a high level so long as he's more concerned with making movies than he is with training and growing as a fighter. If he fights again it should be against Jorge Rivera or Alessio Sakara, which would prove whether or not he really belongs.

Urijah Faber def. Brian Bowles via Submission (Guillotine), Rd 2
What Happened: Bowles really didn't have any answer for Faber's speed, athleticism, and skill. After being slammed and outstruck in the first round, Faber fired an uppercut right up the middle that sent Bowles stumbling back into the cage. Faber swarmed, landing heavy punches and knees while Bowles worked to scramble, ultimately leading to Faber snagging a guillotine choke for the tap.
Thoughts: Great performance by Faber. I said it the moment Faber moved down to 135 and I'll say it again: I don't really see anyone beating him there but Cruz. Bowles also displayed what I've said about him for a while: he's slow...for a bantamweight. I really get surprised by the amount of people that said he'd get by Faber and possibly had what it took to beat Cruz the second time around. In his first fight he looked very slow compared to Cruz and had absolutely nothing for him. He's showed me nothing to indicate that has at all changed, and this fight proved it further. Bowles is very good, but I think he'll be that guy who's stuck in the top 5 but never makes it back to the top.
Next for Faber: He's got the next crack at Cruz. It seems like their last fight just happened, but everyone likes a good rubber match. Faber put up a valiant losing effort against Cruz the first time and is constantly improving. Let's see if he can capture the tie-breaker.
Next for Bowles: Demetrious Johnson makes a lot of sense. Bowles and Johnson are pretty much in the same positions as Rua and Jackson, respectively. They should battle it out to determine who belongs in the mix.

Martin Kampmann def. Rick Story via Decision (Split), Rd 3
What Happened: One finally went Kampmann's way. He used his stout kickboxing, defensive wrestling, and surprisingly his offensive wrestling to take a hard fought decision over a tough Story.
Thoughts: First of all, this should have been a unanimous decision. Of course a minimum of one judge has to be smoking crack instead of watching the fight. I think Kampmann allowed the fight to devolve into a brawl in the first round, which played to Story's strenghts and conceivably gave him the round. However, in the next two rounds Kampmann took a more measured approach and found his range, tagging him repeatedly with right hands and displaying solid wrestling both offensively and defensively. Kampmann finished the fight strong, ending the round on Story's back with a body triangle locked in threatening with a rear-naked choke. The judges finally made the right call where Kampmann is concerned.
Next for Kampmann: I like the idea of Kampmann getting the winner of Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks, or maybe even Mike Pierce.
Next for Story: A tough loss for Story, who finds himself in the midst of a 2 fight skid after flirting with contendership. I actually think a rematch with Charlie Brenneman (with a proper training camp for both) wouldn't be a terrible idea. However, I think Chris Cope is a more viable choice.

Stephan Bonnar def. Kyle Kingsbury via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: After banging it out early in the fight, Bonnar unexpectedly chose to utilize his ground game to secure a dominant decision win over Kingsbury (I scored it 30-25), who simply had no answer for Bonnar's top game.
Thoughts: This was the upset of the night for me. Kingsbury is a beast of a light heavyweight and I thought he'd muscle Bonnar around the cage; but up until the weigh-ins I had forgotten that Bonnar is a huge 205er himself. When I saw them stand next to each other, Kingsbury didn't look so huge. This fight showed how much that size and power advantage matters to Kingsbury. Once was dragged to the ground, he didn't have the strength to power his way back up, and lacked the skills to mount much offense or do much but survive. Very impressive win for Bonnar.
Next for Bonnar: Bonnar has quietly pieced together 3 straight wins following a 3 fight skid (which should be a 2 fight and one no contest skid). Bonnar showed he's still solid, and might do well to get the winner of the upcoming Vladimir Matyshenko vs Alexander Gustafsson fight or Anthony Perosh.
Next for Kingsbury: Kingsbury showed that the really has some work to do on his ground game. If they prefer not to test him there at this point, he should get Cyrille Diabate or Igor Pokrajac. If they do, Matt Lucas or Eliot Marshall (if he's still around).

Prelim Quick(er) Hits

- Ryan Bader knocked out Jason Brilz with a right hand behind the ear a little more than a minute into the fight. Brilz has been KO'd quickly in his last two fights, and will likely be looking at a pink slip. Bader snaps a two-fight losing streak, and this win should give him a good confidence boost.
- Michael McDonald absolutely crushed Alex Soto just under minute into the fight. After dropping him hard with a stiff overhand right to the jaw, Soto somehow survived the onslaught and retreated, only to be dropped along the fence and removed from consciousness with follow up right hands. He looks to have landed awkwardly on his left knee during that last knockdown as well. After a couple of close decisions in his first UFC fights, McDonald finally looked like the top prospect he's touted as.
- Chris Weidman snagged a brilliant first round Brabo Choke victory over Tom Lawlor that left him unconscious, and garnered a little controversy as the referee appeared to step in late. Weidman felt Lawlor go limp, and when he told the referee he just asked aloud if Lawlor was limp and decided to stand and stare at the two combatants instead of checking Lawlor's clearly exposed hand to make sure. Every event has to have one I guess.
- Gleison Tibau vs Rafael dos Anjos was very even for much of the 15 minute affair, but it was a flurry and near finish from Tibau in the second round that ultimately secured the fight for him. Both fighters looked solid, and seemed to cancel each other out a bit.
- Miguel Torres cruised to a decision over and overweight Nick Pace. Torres fought slightly more aggressively than he has been recently, but still favored a patient approach to the fight. He landed some good shots on Pace, but never had him in any serious trouble. Pace, who has lost 2 straight and came in 6 lbs overweight, may be on his way out. Torres should fight Renan Barao next to determine the next contender.
- Seth Baczynski took advantage of Matt Brown's impatience to score a second round guillotine choke. Getting too eager and rushing right into submissions has always been Brown's Achilles heel, and it looks like that hasn't changed.
- Danny Castillo put on a dominant performance against Shamar Bailey, picking him up and slamming him at will, and exercising smothering top control and excellent ground and pound en route to a late first round stoppage. Castillo's ground and pound looked pretty nasty from the guard, and he couldn't have hoped for a better performance to bounce back from his loss to Jacob Volkmann. Bailey is in the same boat as Pace, having lost 2 straight and missing weight for this fight. I'd like to see Castillo take on Even Dunham next.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

UFC on Fox 1 Re-cap

We may have only gotten to see little more than a minute of fighting for UFC's much anticipated network television debut, but it didn't make it any less huge for the sport. There were some nice fights that the viewing public didn't get to see on TV, but they have to start somewhere, and a heavyweight title fight is a nice place to do so. Hopefully UFC and Fox have a bright future together. Time for a recap.

Junior dos Santos def. Cain Velasquez (C) via Knockout (Punches), Rd 1
What Happened: And just like that, it was over. Many pegged it to be a long, back and forth war, but dos Santos needed just over a minute to drop Velasquez with an overhand right behind the ear, and remove him from consciousness with punches.
Thoughts: Great performance from dos Santos. Some people called his finishing ability into question following his decision victories over Shane Carwin and Roy Nelson, but it looks like he put those thoughts to rest tonight in dramatic fashion; and he did it with a torn meniscus. One has to wonder how much the layoff affected Velasquez; he looked considerably slower than dos Santos, and time will tell whether that was due to ring rust, or because dos Santos is just that much faster than he is.
Next for dos Santos: The new champion will face the winner of the upcoming fight between Brock Lesnar and Alistair Overeem. Should be good.
Next for Velasquez: Velasquez is still one of the best heavyweights out there, and shouldn't fall far down the ladder. I could see him taking on the loser of Lesnar vs Overeem or Frank Mir if he gets past Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Benson Henderson def. Clay Guida via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: As has been the case lately, Henderson was just too much for his opponent. Guida made it a spirited battle as per usual, but Henderson was just a step ahead in every position and took home a clear cut decision in a high-paced battle.
Thoughts: Henderson continues to improve and look great since entering the UFC. Guida put up a good fight, but it seemed Henderson's size advantage played a large part in him getting the better of the grappling portions. The brief exchanges on the feet were wild, and while both men had their moments, Henderson scored the most significant strikes of the fight, dropping Guida in the first. Great fight overall, and both guys put on a hell of a show.
Next for Henderson: As this was a #1 contender fight, Henderson will fight Frankie Edgar for the lightweight strap in Japan. Fight of the Year anyone?
Next for Guida: Gray Maynard, having just lost to Edgar, seems like a logical next step for Guida. Jim Miller would also be a solid choice for Guida, and although I'm usually not a fan of guys running to other divisions when the going gets tough, a drop to 145 may not be a terrible idea for him.

Dustin Poirer def. Pablo Garza via Submission (Brabo Choke), Rd 2
What Happened: Poirer showed the expected advantages on the feet, but it was on the ground that he finished the fight. During a transition Poirer slapped on a textbook Brabo choke, forcing an over-matched Garza to tap.
Thoughts: Poirer looks like he could have a bright future at featherweight. Still only 22 years old, he possesses the kind of well-rounded game that could make him a problem for any 145er. Garza couldn't get into his groove and it was clear Poirer was just a step above him, but he's still a solid talent and should bounce back from this loss.
Next for Poirer: It's about time he steps up a bit in competition. Sherdog suggested the winner of Mark Hominick/Chan Sung Jung, which is a good choice. I think another good choice would be to pit him against fellow fast rising star Eric Koch.
Next for Garza: I'd like to see Garza and Jonathan Brookins try to get back on track at the expense of each other. Garza has the stand up and submissions to threaten Brookins from many positions, and Brookins has wrestling that could stifle all that. It could be interesting to see who comes out on top.

Ricardo Lamas def. Cub Swanson via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke), Rd 2
What Happened: Swanson started off strong in the first round, landing good shots that stumbled Lamas standing up and almost choking him out with a tight guillotine. After an early takedown by Lamas in the second round, Swanson got a bit careless on the ground and Lamas took the opportunity to slap on an arm triangle.
Thoughts: Swanson looked good in the first round, and looked to have the advantage overall; but as has happened to him previously, his tendency to get wild cost him. It causes him to give up takedowns and get caught on the ground. He can be a factor in the division if he learns to calm down a bit. Lamas was impressive in locking in the submission so quickly, but otherwise just looked okay.
Next for Lamas: Darren Elkins or Mike Brown.
Next for Swanson: Cub is a fun fighter, but at this point I'm not sure he'll ever work his way to the upper crust of the division even though you could argue he possesses the tools. Jason Young will oblige him in an exciting stand up war.

Demarques Johnson def. Clay Harvison via KO (Punches), Rd 1
What Happened: From the start Johnson came out looking to box, favoring a boxing stance that is ill-fitted for kicks or defending takedowns. It didn't seem like the best idea initially, but it paid dividends. A left uppercut put Harvison on his back, and after prematurely celebrating, Johnson throws a right to seal the deal.
Thoughts: What can I say about this one? It was a bad night for guys named Clay. Johnson has clearly been working hard on his striking after getting worked by Amir Sadollah. Johnson is always willing to stand, but until tonight he lacked the skills and power to make a difference in striking battles. If tonight's performance was any indication, Johnson may become as dangerous on the feet as he is on the ground
Next for Johnson: Tough call. He's 4-3 in the UFC, and has alternated wins and losses in his last 5. I'll throw Dennis Hallman's name out there.
Next for Harvison: Harvison could be staring at a pink slip with one more loss. Pit him against Paul Bradley, who also lost his second straight at the event.

Darren "BC" Uyenoyama def. Norufumi "Kid" Yamamoto via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: Kid was no match for BC's high level BJJ. Kid established his wrestling and willingness to grow to the ground early with a couple nice hip tosses, but BC was by far the more talented of the two on the ground. The only other offense Kid really showed was a hard right hand that cut and wobbled BC, forcing him to shoot for a takedown. However, the majority of the fight was spent with Kid fending off submissions and being controlled on the ground.
Thoughts: I really had high hopes for Kid in this fight. I thought this would be a good fight for him to get back on track, as his great wrestling and striking seemed to be good foils for BC on paper. I'm sure the UFC is disappointed that Kid failed to impress yet again, and were hoping he'd get a win so he could be pushed for the Japan card in February. I've been a Kid fan for a long time, and it's just time to admit that not only is he past his prime but the game has really passed him by.
Next for Uyenoyama: I wouldn't be surprised to see him get as spot on the Japan card. Against Kid he showed a good chin, and ability to get inside. Once he did get inside he showed great confidence and skill in his BJJ. Ken Stone or Jeff Hougland could provide entertaining grappling battles.
Next for Yamamoto: Kid can't seem to put it together in the UFC, not that it's incredibly suprising when considering his losses to a green Joe Warren and losing a clear cut decision to Masanori Kanehara, whom everyone thought he'd destroy. Kid may get a shot at the Japan show since he's such a big star there, but he'll likely be fighting for his job. Maybe his originally scheduled fight with Damacio Page will get booked. It'll be entertaining, and in theory Kid should win it.

Robert Peralta def. Mackens Semerzier via TKO (punches), Rd 3
What Happened: After a good first round for Semerzier in which he scored a knockdown, Peralta turned the tides in the second with a knockdown of his own. Semerzier fought much more cautiously after that, allowing Peralta to better find his groove. Peralta dropped Semerzier in the 3rd, and this time Semerzier couldn't recover. Post-fight replays showed that a headbutt led to the finish.
Thoughts: I was rooting for Semerzier so the result was disappointing to say the least. Semerzier looked great in the first round, but after getting tagged in the second he just seemed to lose his aggression. It was turning out to be a good and close fight until the unfortunate end. Hopefully the fight will be reviewed and changed to a no contest; the headbutt dropped Semerzier, and the ending was only made possible because of it.
Next for Peralta: Barring a no contest and rematch, I'd like to see him take on Darren Elkins or Javier Vazquez.
Next for Semerzier: Tough loss for him if it stays a loss. He'd have a hell of a fight against Leonard Garcia.

Alex Caceres def. Cole Escovedo via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: Caceres put on a clinic, outworking Escovedo with flashy and effective strikes alike, as well has giving him trouble on the ground where Escovedo was supposed to hold a clear advantage.
Thoughts: It was the second most suprising performance next to Uyenoyama's domination of Yamamoto. Caceres pretty much tooled Escovedo on the feet, never allowing him to put anything significant together. When Escovedo finally got Caceres to the ground where many thought he would dominate, he was met with a flurry of close submission attempts that might have held if Caceres was a bit more seasoned. I never thought either guy particularly belonged in the UFC, but Caceres may have changed that in his move to the bantamweight division.
Next for Caceres: Yves Jabouin will give him a good battle on the feet.
Next for Escovedo: This fight had all the makings of a "loser leaves town" fight, so I suspect Escovedo will get his walking papers with 3 straight losses.

The Rest
- Mike Pierce took a nip-tuck decision over Paul Bradley. Pierce bounced back nicely since his close split decision loss to Johny Hendricks, while Bradley has lost his second straight.

- Aaron Rosa took a clear cut, albeit uneventful, decision over Matt Lucas. Rosa looked a lot better physically at 205, and put on a decent performance despite the slight dullness of the bout. Lucas definitely didn't impress, as his wrestling was nullified and he didn't have in the way of striking skills.

Sunday, October 30, 2011

UFC 137 Re-cap: The Main Card

It's been a good while since I've updated, but I figure now is as good a time as any since two great careers came to an end tonight. The event definitely suffered as a result of a myriad of injuries (most notably a welterweight title fight scratched altogether), but overall it was a decent night of fights, and the main event really ended it on an exciting note after a pretty tepid co-main. Let's get to it!

Nick Diaz def. BJ Penn via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: For one round BJ looked to have things under control as he landed good shots, dodged much of Diaz's perpetual punches, and even took him down and briefly took his back. Then Diaz's size and cardio advantage came into play. He used his overwhelming style of constant pressure and sharp boxing to wear Penn down, and even hurt him on a couple occasions en route to a clear-cut decision victory.
Thoughts: This was a case of Diaz doing what he does best. I envisioned the fight going exactly as it did, and I knew that if it went into deeper waters Diaz would tire him out. Before the fight I thought it might be possible for Penn to utilize wrestling to neutralize Diaz and preserve energy, and initially it looked as if he might be going that route. I figured if he could do this against Fitch it should be no problem taking Diaz down, but I guess Diaz's size advantage was a bigger factor than I thought. It's still odd to me that he had such trouble taking Diaz down after the first one, but then again Chael Sonnen has been training at Cesar Gracie's recently; maybe he picked up some things. Either way, I may not like Diaz much but as usual he put on a hell of a performance and definitely took a major step towards being better accepted as a truly elite welterweight. We still don't know if he can now handle a great wrestler, but I guess we will soon....
Next for Diaz: After his vitriolic post-fight comments aimed at champion Georges St. Pierre, it looks as though Diaz will get his wish. St. Pierre is furious, Carlos Condit has agreed to step aside, and Dana White has re-booked GSP vs Diaz for the title on Superbowl weekend.
Next for Penn: I've always had a bit of a love-hate relationship with Penn, but I was sad to hear him announce that he's done. Recently I had grown to like him a lot more because he seems to have matured and is taking things more seriously, but I guess one sign of maturity is knowing when to hang 'em up. Penn strikes me as the type of guy who at this stage in his career wants to be on top or nowhere at all. He has nothing left to prove, so if he's no longer in the mix he might as well move on.

Cheick Kongo def. Matt Mitrione via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: After two largely uneventful rounds, Kongo scored the most significant offense of the fight by taking Mitrione down and swelling up his left eye with ground and pound, giving him the round and the fight.
Thoughts: Call me crazy, but I definitely had this scored a draw. Very even first round, Mitrione narrowly getting the better of round 2, and Kongo easily taking round 3 (but not nearly enough for a 10-8). I could see the fight going either way, but honestly if I had to give the fight to someone it would have been Mitrione. Maybe it was his footwork and "Octagon control" but he just seemed to be more in command of the fight until the 3rd round. He also seemed to land the more significant shots. However, it was a close fight so I can't be mad at the decision.
Next for Kongo: He has built up a pretty impressive streak and is enjoying a bit of a resurgence. Many expected this to be a showcase for Mitrione, but Kongo showed why he can still be a factor in the division. Another respectable gatekeeper type would be good for him at this point, and Roy Nelson or Mark Hunt could make for a good fight. Another option could be a Travis Browne rematch.
Next for Mitrione: Still young in his MMA career, Mitrione will only learn and improve from this loss. He showed a little too much respect for Kongo's power, and was content to chase him around the ring instead of pulling the trigger and putting his smooth striking on optimum display. Ben Rothwell would make a good rebound opponent for him, as he lacks the wrestling to handle Mitrione as Kongo did, and may oblige him on the feet as well. Or they can continue to follow the pattern of Mitrione and his friend and training partner Pat Barry playing "me too" with each other and give him Stefan Struve.

Roy Nelson def. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic via TKO (punches), Rd 3
What Happened: In what Mirko pegged to possibly be his last fight regardless of the outcome, he went out fighting. In spots, the fearsome Cro Cop of old reared his head, suddenly exploding with aggressive combinations and even throwing his famous left high kick. However, Nelson refused to wilt under Cro Cop's offense and delivered strong offense of his own. After taking Cro Cop down and threatening to end the fight with strikes from the mounted crucifix position at the end of the 2nd round, Nelson staggered him in the 3rd with a strong right hand, seized back mount after a slip from Mirko, and rained down hard punches until the ref had seen enough.
Thoughts: In his recent UFC run, Cro Cop has made a habit of being competitive (in some cases maybe even winning) during the first 2 rounds, only to be unexpectedly finished in the 3rd. This has occurred in each of his last 4 losses. During the fight Joe Rogan mentioned that Cro Cop misses out on a lot of opportunities because he doesn't utilize his jab, and he's 100% correct. This is why he is no longer the feared striker he once was; his strategy of stalking with single shots worked during his heyday, but the game has evolved and his stand up hasn't. He became predictable, and that's why he has failed to pull the trigger or look all that impressive in the UFC. Roy's performance was solid; he didn't show us anything new but did show why he'll always be a good gatekeeper. Also he landed a lot of punches to the back of Mirko's head in the finish, not that it would have changed the outcome much.
Next for Nelson: Having previously dropped 2 straight, he needs to get back on the road to the top 15. Cheick Kongo or Travis Browne would be good for him.
Next for Filipvic: After about a year of his fans (myself included) calling for him to retire following tepid performances and brutal losses, he finally obliged; and much like Chuck Liddell did in his final fight, he decided not to go away easily. It's the kind of thing that makes you wonder whether they really should retire or give it one more shot. There were moments in the Nelson fight where I thought "this Cro Cop might be able to make a splash with a few more adjustments." He didn't get the win, but I'm satisfied his last fight was one in which he looked to fight to win, and not just for a paycheck.

Scott Jorgensen def. Jeff Curran via Decision (Unanimous), Rd 3
What Happened: Curran was wily and game as always, but his high level BJJ couldn't get it done against Jorgensen's superior wrestling and top control. He scored well on the feet, but Jorgensen wouldn't let it stay there long enough for it to make a difference. The result: a nip-tuck decision.
Thoughts: To be honest, I didn't really have much interest in this fight. I knew how it would go, and I knew it'd be semi-frustrating to watch because Curran wouldn't have would it takes to keep himself from being taken down and nullified.
Next for Jorgensen: He hasn't done anything to show that a rematch with champ Dominick Cruz would be any less embarrassing than the first one, but Jorgensen deserves someone near the top of the heap now. Joseph Benavidez or Demetrious Johnson (Benavidez more likely) could make for interesting fights since they're more prepared for Jorgensen's wrestling, and willing to dish out some of their own.
Next for Curran: Curran's return to the UFC was spoiled simply because of a bad style match up for him. I would like to see him face someone who won't just stifle his game and win a decision against him, as has happened in almost every loss he's had in the past few years. Cole Escovedo will be hungry for a win and won't hesitate to trade leather or submissions with Curran. Eddie Wineland could also provide an exciting match up.

Hatsu Hioki def. George Roop via Decision (Split), Rd 3
What Happened: They had very different gameplans: Roop wanted to push the pace and strike; Hioki wanted to get the fight to the ground and work submissions. Despite being out-struck much of the fight, Hioki's control on the ground won over two of the judges and they awarded him a close, albeit controversial, split decision.
Thoughts: FINALLY it's a Japanese fighter's turn to steal away a decision in the UFC for a change. I had Roop winning the 1st and the 3rd, though the 1st was admittedly the closest round of the fight. Moreover, Hioki just didn't look very impressive; nothing at all like the man who beat former UFC title contender Mark Hominick twice and who dominated Marlon Sandro for 5 rounds to take the Sengoku strap. Maybe we can chalk it up to just how awkward it is to fight someone like Roop, who is very tall and long for the division, and is unpredictable (although unrefined) on the feet. He's been trouble for almost everyone he's faced at featherweight because of these things, despite not appearing to be the savviest guy in the cage. I'm glad Hioki got the win, but I really hope this was a case of Octagon jitters, and he performs much better next time around.
Next for Hioki: Based on the rankings I would say Hioki should get a top 10 guy next, but he didn't look as though he's ready for that yet. Sherdog.com mentioned Bart Palaszewski, who made an impressive debut at 145 at the same event, and I can agree with that. However, it seems to me that the #2 ranked featherweight in the world should probably be facing someone more along the lines of Dustin Poirer or Eric Koch, which would be much more relevant to the rankings and the featherweight title picture.
Next for Roop: Roop has shown himself to be a good gatekeeper at 145, and although he got the short end of the stick this time, it shouldn't reflect badly on his performance. He took the fight to Hioki when he could and never gave up the whole way through. He showed much improved takedown defense and all-around game in this fight, and I think he'll need to continue that path if he wants a chance to break out of that gatekeeper status. He shows potential, and has the physical tools to frustrate opponents but lacks the technical tools, though as mentioned before they are steadily improving. Jonathan Brookins could prove a stern test for his takedown defense and ground game.