UFC 117 predictions

Anderson Silva (c) vs Chael Sonnen
Rooting for: Sonnen
Predicion: This would be a very interesting matchup if not for one factor: Sonnen's penchant for getting caught in submissions from the guard. With better submission defense Sonnen might actually be able to grind down Silva for 5 rounds, but without it the match loses a lot of its suspense. Sonnen should have the skills to take Silva down, but Silva has an active guard, and that has proven to be Sonnen's greatest enemy. Silva's recent focus on improving his wrestling and takedown defense may also play a big factor in making this a bad fight for Sonnen. This is all assuming Chael's rudimentary (but much improved) striking won't lead to Silva starching him before he even gets a chance to take it to the ground. Sonnen is a nice blueprint of how to beat Silva, but he's missing the credible standup and submission defense that really convinces me he can win this fight. Provided he hasn't made huge strides in both areas, I see Silva taking this via submission in the 2nd or 3rd round.

John Fitch vs Thiago Alves
Rooting for: Alves
Prediction: This is a rematch from 4 years ago in which Fitch finished Alves with an upkick and punches. Both have improved since, but Alves has made the more significant improvements of the two. Fitch is a wrestler who prefers to grind out his victories with relentless top control to wear down his opponents. Alves is one of the best kickboxers at welterweight, and has improved his takedown defense dramatically in the past couple years. This could spell problems for Fitch. He will need to get the fight to the ground consistently to win, as his striking is nowhere near Alves' level. Alves with takedown defense is scary for any welterweight, even one as tough as Fitch. I say Alves keeps this one standing the majority of the fight and batters Fitch to a competitive but clear decision.

Junior dos Santos vs Roy Nelson
Rooting for: Torn on this one. I think dos Santos is more compelling, but on the other had I'd love to see Roy the run so many people (including myself) thought improbable
Prediction: This fight favors dos Santos in my eyes. I think Roy has gotten a little too much hype considering his greatest wins thus far are against Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve. He's gotten a bit too much credit for looking great against scrubs, and dos Santos is anything but. Also consider the fact that every single time Nelson has stepped up to fight competition anywhere near the top 10 (Andre Arlovski, Ben Rothwell, hell....even Jeff Monson) he has lost. The Arlovski fight proves most interesting since dos Santos can be compared to Arlovski in many ways, except he's faster and has a better chin. That fight ended up with Nelson getting KO'd, and I see this fight going the same way. I know Roy's sweet spot is on the ground and that the ground is a big question mark for dos Santos, but I don't see Roy getting him down and keeping him there. TKO for JDS in the 3rd.

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida
Rooting for: Hughes, mostly because I hate seeing athletes get punked when past their primes.
Prediction: Had this fight happened a few years ago it'd be very compelling. Today it's clear Hughes has aged a lot in a very short time. He's facing a much younger (in "fight age", hes actually only 3 years younger), fresher opponent with great wrestling and BJJ in Almeida. Normally I would give Hughes a better chance, but after the geriatric showing he had against Renzo Gracie at UFC 112 I just don't see him bringing much to the table against Almeida. Hope I'm wrong and Hughes at least makes it very competitive, but I see Almeida walking away with a clear-cut decision in this one.

Clay Guida vs Rafael dos Anjos
Rooting for: Guida
Prediction: I found myself becoming a bit of a Guida fan in the past couple years. The guy is a ball of energy with endless cardio, and always brings that energy to his fights. However, that very same energy seems to have created or exacerbated the large holes in his game. He has wild, sloppy stand up with little in the way of defense, and his wily grappling game has caused him many a submission loss. That's a bad combo to have against dos Anjos, who may also rough around the edges in the stand up department, but is adept at controlling range with punishing leg kicks, which doesn't do Guida's short reach any favors. Once the fight gets to the ground (and it most likely will), dos Anjos' excellent BJJ should give Guida fits. I see this fight going one of two ways: either Guida gets subbed late in the 1st or midway through the 2nd round, or manages to stay out of trouble in the guard, in which case he will probably grind his way to a close decision victory. I think the former is a tad more likely.

Final Picks
- Silva over Sonnen via submission in the 2nd or 3rd
- Alves over Fitch via decision
- dos Santos over Nelson via TKO in the 3rd
- Almeida over Hughes via decision
- dos Anjos over Guida via submission in the 1st or 2nd