UFC 117 predictions

Anderson Silva (c) vs Chael Sonnen
Rooting for: Sonnen
Predicion: This would be a very interesting matchup if not for one factor: Sonnen's penchant for getting caught in submissions from the guard. With better submission defense Sonnen might actually be able to grind down Silva for 5 rounds, but without it the match loses a lot of its suspense. Sonnen should have the skills to take Silva down, but Silva has an active guard, and that has proven to be Sonnen's greatest enemy. Silva's recent focus on improving his wrestling and takedown defense may also play a big factor in making this a bad fight for Sonnen. This is all assuming Chael's rudimentary (but much improved) striking won't lead to Silva starching him before he even gets a chance to take it to the ground. Sonnen is a nice blueprint of how to beat Silva, but he's missing the credible standup and submission defense that really convinces me he can win this fight. Provided he hasn't made huge strides in both areas, I see Silva taking this via submission in the 2nd or 3rd round.

John Fitch vs Thiago Alves
Rooting for: Alves
Prediction: This is a rematch from 4 years ago in which Fitch finished Alves with an upkick and punches. Both have improved since, but Alves has made the more significant improvements of the two. Fitch is a wrestler who prefers to grind out his victories with relentless top control to wear down his opponents. Alves is one of the best kickboxers at welterweight, and has improved his takedown defense dramatically in the past couple years. This could spell problems for Fitch. He will need to get the fight to the ground consistently to win, as his striking is nowhere near Alves' level. Alves with takedown defense is scary for any welterweight, even one as tough as Fitch. I say Alves keeps this one standing the majority of the fight and batters Fitch to a competitive but clear decision.

Junior dos Santos vs Roy Nelson
Rooting for: Torn on this one. I think dos Santos is more compelling, but on the other had I'd love to see Roy the run so many people (including myself) thought improbable
Prediction: This fight favors dos Santos in my eyes. I think Roy has gotten a little too much hype considering his greatest wins thus far are against Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve. He's gotten a bit too much credit for looking great against scrubs, and dos Santos is anything but. Also consider the fact that every single time Nelson has stepped up to fight competition anywhere near the top 10 (Andre Arlovski, Ben Rothwell, hell....even Jeff Monson) he has lost. The Arlovski fight proves most interesting since dos Santos can be compared to Arlovski in many ways, except he's faster and has a better chin. That fight ended up with Nelson getting KO'd, and I see this fight going the same way. I know Roy's sweet spot is on the ground and that the ground is a big question mark for dos Santos, but I don't see Roy getting him down and keeping him there. TKO for JDS in the 3rd.

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida
Rooting for: Hughes, mostly because I hate seeing athletes get punked when past their primes.
Prediction: Had this fight happened a few years ago it'd be very compelling. Today it's clear Hughes has aged a lot in a very short time. He's facing a much younger (in "fight age", hes actually only 3 years younger), fresher opponent with great wrestling and BJJ in Almeida. Normally I would give Hughes a better chance, but after the geriatric showing he had against Renzo Gracie at UFC 112 I just don't see him bringing much to the table against Almeida. Hope I'm wrong and Hughes at least makes it very competitive, but I see Almeida walking away with a clear-cut decision in this one.

Clay Guida vs Rafael dos Anjos
Rooting for: Guida
Prediction: I found myself becoming a bit of a Guida fan in the past couple years. The guy is a ball of energy with endless cardio, and always brings that energy to his fights. However, that very same energy seems to have created or exacerbated the large holes in his game. He has wild, sloppy stand up with little in the way of defense, and his wily grappling game has caused him many a submission loss. That's a bad combo to have against dos Anjos, who may also rough around the edges in the stand up department, but is adept at controlling range with punishing leg kicks, which doesn't do Guida's short reach any favors. Once the fight gets to the ground (and it most likely will), dos Anjos' excellent BJJ should give Guida fits. I see this fight going one of two ways: either Guida gets subbed late in the 1st or midway through the 2nd round, or manages to stay out of trouble in the guard, in which case he will probably grind his way to a close decision victory. I think the former is a tad more likely.

Final Picks
- Silva over Sonnen via submission in the 2nd or 3rd
- Alves over Fitch via decision
- dos Santos over Nelson via TKO in the 3rd
- Almeida over Hughes via decision
- dos Anjos over Guida via submission in the 1st or 2nd

My UFC Fight Night 21 Picks

Fight Night 21 totally snuck up on me.  I'm still fresh off of UFC 111 and four days later they're hittin' us up again.  I'd say this has been a great month for MMA fans.  These are my picks for the event.  I usually refrain from calling the rounds unless I feel its a given, and I might skip matches where I don't know enough about one or both of the competitors or just plain can't call it.   Anyway, on with it.

Main Card

Kenny Florian vs. Takanori Gomi

I've been a big fan of Gomi since his run in Pride and a moderate Florian fan for a couple years now, so I'm rooting for Gomi to take the win.  However, its clear that Gomi has lost a sizable step in his game since his heyday in Pride.  The Gomi of old had some solid, powerful boxing and effective wrestling that allowed him to work a dangerous top control game.  The Gomi of late swings looping, predictable haymakers at his opponent, eschews his considerable wrestling skills in favor of wild exchanges, and gasses fairly easily.  He basically fights like he doesn't care anymore.  Florian on the other hand seems to be improving every time we see him in the cage, and has developed into a solid boxer and tactical counterpuncher.  In the battle of predictable haymakers vs accurate counterstrikes, the latter is a safe bet to win on paper.  However, if Gomi is really as prepared as he says he is, it could definitely go his way.  Gomi's granite chin makes for high durability, so the chances of Florian finishing him, or even hurting him are in question.  And the wild card is that although Gomi's punches have become predictable, he hits hard as hell and it only takes one connection to change the tide of the fight.  But with all this said, I see a strong opening for Gomi, but Kenflo will weather the first round and pick Gomi apart as the fight goes on en route to a decision victory.

Roy Nelson vs. Stefan Struve

I'm excited for this fight if only for the visual wtf factor it'll provide.  Physically, Nelson and Struve are polar opposites, and I think this along with their respective styles could make for an interesting fight.  Both are grapplers with considerable chops on the ground, but the difference maker will be on the feet.  Nelson has shown himself to be a very competent boxer who can stand comfortably with strikers, where as Struve's stand up is extremely limited and he has yet to figure out how to employ his long and rangy frame on the feet (he's still very young, he's got time on his side to develop).  On the ground, I can see Struve frustrating Nelson from the bottom, but I really don't see him doing incredibly much to stop him from putting the pressure on with his large frame.  Struve will be competitive throughout, but Nelson gets the unanimous nod. 

Ross Pearson vs. Dennis Siver

I don't know incredibly much about Siver, I became an instant Pearson fan from his first fight on TUF 9.  I was very impressed with both of them in their last fights against Paul Kelly and Aaron Riley respectively, but Pearson's destruction of Riley really opened my eyes as to just how crisp a striker he is.  Siver throws a lot of flashy powerful kicks, Pearson plays it more tight and tactical with his kickboxing.  As for this match, Siver will come out swinging and flailing, but Pearson's superior movement and solid defense will keep him out of trouble.  Siver on the other hand won't have much left in his toolbox once his style proves ineffective, allowing Pearson to pick him apart and earn a TKO victory.

Nate Quarry vs. Jorge Rivera

This should be a slugfest.  Both guys like to stand and bang, and aren't afraid to take a few hits to give a few more.  I find Quarry's skills more solid overall, so I'm inclined to think they'll slug it out for however long it takes Nate to notch a TKO.

Prelims

Andre Winner vs. Rafaello Oliveira

Winner, much like his Rough House teammate Pearson, also impressed the hell out of me in his last outing.  He should strong, accurate striking and great footwork en route to a devastating KO of Roli Delgado.  Oliveira is a BJJ blackbelt who isn't a fish out of water standing up, but is still closer to a guppy than a shark in the area.  He has decent power, but no technique, and Winner will be happy to exploit that fact.  I really just don't think Oliveira has much of anything for Winner, who's footwork and takedown defense should keep him upright long enough to tee off.  I smell a knockout, and Winner once again lives up to his name.

Ronys Torres vs Jacob Volkmann

Volkmann came into the UFC pretty highly touted, but has thus far been thrown to the sharks in in the form of top 10 welters Paulo Thiago and Martin Kampmann for an 0-2 record in the promotion.  Against Thiago he was durable but awkward, if not a bit clumsy and seemed to be on his heels the entire fight.  Against Kampmann he showed much more aggression, but received a guillotine choke for his troubles.  Torres was touted as the next big welterweight grappler, but failed to impress against Melvin Guillard, who's very kryptonite is good grappling, in his UFC debut, losing a decision.  Although Volkmann is a former Div. I wrestler, it sure doesn't show in the cage, and he doesn't have the takedown defense or power to stop Torres from putting him on the wrong end of a decision.

Rob Emerson vs. Nik Lentz

Emerson is an accurate kickboxer with improving takedown defense.  Lentz is a....decent wrestler.  Unless Lentz has been working on his takedowns, it doesn't look good for him.  After tiring himself out on failed takedown attempts, Emerson will pick him apart and take the decision.

Caol Uno vs. Gleison Tibau

I've been a Caol Uno fan since he drew with BJ Penn the first UFC Lightweight Title match, but he's definitely past his prime (this is sounding familiar).  He's still got plenty of tricks up his sleeves, and he's still very durable, but he's just plain not as good as he used to be.  Tibau is a bulldozing takedown machine that cuts over 9000 lbs to make 155.  What's the deal with the UFC being so tough on Japanese guys anyway?  Are they trying to send a message telling them to cut weight or they'll get thrashed in the US?  First 170-something Yoshiyuki Yoshida gets the most gigantic welter on the planet in Anthony Johnson, now this.  And Japanese fighters never get tune-ups, as evidenced by Gomi fighting Florian in his UFC debut.  Not to mention the BS decision loss Uno lost against Spencer Fisher a while back.  This might as well be another screw you to the Japanese, because I don't see this fight ending any way other than a unanimous decision for Tibau....unless Uno taps out due to frustration from being taken down over and over again and held there.

There are  2 more fights on the undercard, but of the four guys the only ones I can really talk about is Jason High and Gerald Harris, so I can't really give an accurate prediction.  But just for the hell of it, I'll go ahead and predict that both High and Harris will get wins.  Probably decisions.