Hot and Cold: UFC 125

Of course UFC 125 had its winners and losers (and draws), but how have the fighters been affected in the big picture? Who won or lost more than just the match they fought this past Saturday? Thought I'd try out something new, so here's what I think.

Who's HOT

Frankie Edgar: To many, the mark of a true champion is the ability to overcome adversity. Edgar showed one of the greatest examples of this against Gray Maynard, as he took one of the most hellacious beatings ever seen in a title fight, and not only survived the round but somehow came back to take round 2 clearly. Edgar is very disappointed that the fight came out to a draw, but the fact that he even made it to a decision at all is incredibly impressive by itself. He came back from a 10-8 first round to take a draw on one scorecard, and even win the fight on another. He has nothing to be ashamed of.

Brian Stann: Stann took a huge risk in calling out a fighter like Chris Leben while still trying to establish himself since dropping to 185. He was rewarded in the best way possible for his risk by not only beating Leben, but finishing him with strikes; something only middleweight champ Anderson Silva has managed to do. Stann arguably shot up from unheralded middleweight to top 15 in one fight.

Thiago Silva: After a year layoff to correct a back injury he's fought with for a while, Silva dominated and humiliated Brandon Vera on Saturday. With his performance, there are already suggestions from fans to give him Rampage or the winner of Jon Jones vs Ryan Bader for his next fight, which would put him in the mix.

Dong Hyun Kim: Kim impressed with a dominant grinding win over Nate Diaz, where he showed off his great strength and excellent awareness on the ground. He's not quite ready for GSP yet, but he definitely needs a top 10 opponent.

Clay Guida: Guida seems to be hitting a stride. His guillotine choke victory over for Pride lightweight king Takanori Gomi was his third straight submission victory, and in those fights he has displayed improvements in just about all facets of his game. It may be time to enter Guida in lightweight contender talks.

Dustin Poirer: A dominant decision over Josh Grispi has surely earned Poirer a top 10 featherweight spot, and likely has him close to earning a title shot.

Brad Tavares: Tavares showed some heart after getting dropped and nearly finished by a dangerous Phil Baroni, only to turn around and impressively TKO him shortly after.

Diego Nunes: The first round may not have been pretty, but Nunes is now arguably a top 5 featherweight after edging out former king Mike Brown via decision.

Who's COLD

Chris Leben: After the impressive 2010 Leben had, just losing to Stann didn't put him on the cold list. However, getting stopped due to strikes for just the second time in his career in a territory he usually calls his own (a brawl) justifies his entry. Reports have risen that Leben was sick during the fight (and he did look more sluggish than usual), but I hate excuses, and I doubt it would have gone too much differently. Leben is still a threat to most 185'ers so I'm sure he'll bounce back.

Brandon Vera: It's bad enough that Vera has now lost 3-straight, which is usually grounds for extermination in the UFC; but Vera also lost in lackluster and embarrassing fashion against Thiago Silva. After being dominated for 2 rounds, he practically did nothing while Silva rode his back, slapped his head, and drummed on his body in the 3rd. Vera was definitely one of the bigger losers Saturday.

Marcus Davis: Also in the 3-straight loss crowd is Marcus Davis, who had his debut at 155 spoiled when he suffered a 3rd round KO at the hands of Jeremy Stephens. All the more disheartening for Davis is that he was arguably winning the fight before the KO; he was soundly outboxing Stephens and overpowering him in the clinch and on the ground. As one of the more exciting fighters he may get another chance, and he definitely showed signs of being competitive in the division.

Josh Grispi: After his performance against Dustin Poirer it's hard to believe Grispi was originally slated to face Jose Aldo for the featherweight strap on at UFC 125. He's still very young so he has plenty of time to develop, but he is clearly not ready for upper-level featherweights yet.

Phil Baroni: The third and final entrant in the 3-straight loss club at UFC 125, Baroni is likely in the most danger of getting cut. After a strong start in which he seemed dropped Brad Tavares and almost locked in a tight guillotine, Baroni was shocked with a barrage of strikes.

Antonio McKee: McKee's mouth is what got him onto this list. His close decision loss to Jacob Volkmann (ending a 15 fight, almost 8 year unbeaten streak) is only a minor setback, but when you consider the amount of cocky trash talk and promises of coming into the UFC and taking reign over the lightweight division in brutal fashion, McKee was a pretty big loser that night. Usually eager to shoot off at the mouth when given the chance, he has been pretty quiet since the loss.

Who's....at ROOM TEMPERATURE

Gray Maynard: Maynard looked great in the first round of his title fight against Frankie Edgar. But after trying so hard to finish in that round, he was decidedly slower and less effective for the following 20 minutes. He still did well, but how do you go from destroying someone for 5 minutes to getting slammed on your ass and outworked by that same guy in the very next round?

Nate Diaz: Diaz is still a solid fighter, but Dong Hyun Kim just showed us what we already knew: Diaz can't handle the combo of good wrestling and submission defense. His performance against Kim was his typical fare, where he is taken down and nullified for 2 rounds, and finishes strong due to his great cardio, but it doesn't make up for being dominated for the majority of the fight.

Takanori Gomi: Gomi's susceptibility to submissions rears its ugly head once more against Clay Guida. Aside from that, he's faced nothing but tough competitors and he didn't look bad against Guida. Knowing how the UFC seems to deal with Japanese fighter, I sadly wouldn't be too surprised if Gomi was cut after going 1-2 in the UFC, but he still has a lot to offer them so I don't see it happening.

Jeremy Stephens: An impressive knockout doesn't erase the fact that Marcus Davis outworked him for much of the match. Nothing major, but Stephens will need to tighten up his game if he wants to compete at a higher level.

Mike Brown: Despite his decision loss to Diego Nunes, Brown looked solid in the fight, especially in the first round where he was aggressive with his striking and closed Nunes' left eye. He still has good fights to give in the UFC, but I fear the division is starting to pass him by.

Jacob Volkmann: You'd figure that with his third straight win he'd be in the hot column right? Not when you consistently deliver uneventful decision wins. Outwrestling Antonio McKee is a very impressive feat, but Volkmann won't get onto the main card anytime soon with his style.

UFC 125 recap

After a long hiatus from blogging, I couldn't resist returning after such an awesome string of fights both to close out 2010 and open up 2011. I'll cover UFC 125 right now, but I can't ignore Sengoku: Soul of Fight and Dynamte! 2010, as both proved to be quality events despite Japanese year-end shows usually being chock full of gimmicks and throwaway matches. UFC 125 delivered what I hoped it would, and then some, even if I may not have done so hot in predicting the outcomes. I called 2010 the year of upsets, and I think the trend may carry over to 2011. And here we go! Not holding back on this one, it will be lengthy haha.

Frankie Edgar (c) and Gray Maynard fight to a Split Draw, Rd 5
Prediction: In a repeat of their first encounter, Maynard's strength and size would be too much for Edgar in the early going, and a late surge against a more weary Maynard would prove too little, too late. Maynard by Decision.
What Happened: After a disastrous 1st round in which Edgar was nearly finished with punches multiple times, Edgar did the improbable and not only survived the round but came back to convincingly win the 2nd. What resulted was a close fight in which the scores were 48-46, 46-48, and 47-47, a split draw.
Thoughts: Wow. The fight that had long been predicted to be painfully boring turns out to be perhaps the most exciting, drama-filled fights on the entire card. I thought for sure Edgar was done in round one, and how he survived is beyond me. He came back to outwrestle Gray in several spots, effectively showing that Maynard's size and strength advantage isn't as dramatic as it once was. The fight was also a draw if I've ever seen one. It's disappointing but absolutely the right call. If it weren't for the the 10-8 round I would have scored it for Edgar in what would have been one of the greatest comebacks of all time. Hell, it still is.
Next for Edgar: An interesting situation has risen. Anthony Pettis is scheduled to face the winner of this fight....but there is no winner. Still, as much as an immediate rematch makes sense, I think the sensible thing to do is to give Pettis his shot since it involves a title unification and it is unfair to make him wait so long. Still, Maynard does deserve a rematch.
Next for Maynard: If he doesn't get a rematch, his choices are to either sit back and wait for the winner of Edgar vs Pettis or take another fight in the interim. If he chooses the latter, the winner of the upcoming Melvin Guillard vs Evan Dunham fight may make sense.

Brian Stann def. Chris Leben by TKO (knee and punches), Rd 1
Prediction: Stann would hold his own on the feet, but would succumb to the Leben Special: get caught up in a firefight, where Leben's chin and punching power usually allow him to come out on top in brutal fashion.
What Happened: Talk about the complete opposite. Stann did well in the early going not allowing Leben to draw him in, and using footwork and a good jab to jump in and out with his strikes. However, it was just a matter of time before he was in Leben's world....or so we thought. After being sucked into a firefight and even getting wobbled, Stann dropped Leben with a hard right hand. In typical fashion, Leben didn't mustered up the ability to get back to his feet, where Stann buckled him once again with sharp lefts. Once again, Leben somehow came back like a zombie from the grave. However, this time Stann would inflict the proverbial shot to the head: a hard knee and followup punches and Leben was done.
Thoughts: Leben still amazes me with his ability to absorb shots and keep coming. Just about any other guy would have been done after Stann landed that right hand and pounced for the finish, and if not would surely be done after the next volley of punches. But even more impressive was Stann's performance. According to most (including myself) this was Leben's fight to lose, but Stann made sure there was no doubt as to who ended the fight. Leading up to the fight Leben said Stann couldn't punch his way through a paper bag. Well maybe so, but he sure could punch his way through Leben's face.
Next for Stann: A win over such a highly regarded opponent should earn Stann a crack at an upper level middleweight. Michael Bisping would be a perfect opponent for him. Stann's more tactical approach since joining Greg Jackson's camp would be greatly tested against Bisping's methodical style. Not to mention pairing an arrogant Brit like Bisping against a humble, former Marine captain like Stann speaks for itself in terms of pre-fight build up. A lot of American fans want to see Bisping beaten regardless of who else he's facing; an all-American guy like Stann would have the America vs. Britain rivalry at an all time high.
Next for Leben: After a fantastic 2010, it looks like Leben's 2011 has started out on quite a bad note. Not only was he finished in the 1st round but it was due to strikes, something no other man but current middleweight kingpin Anderson Silva has done. Since it looks like he won't get Wanderlei Silva, Leben might look to rebound against the loser of Bisping vs Rivera or better yet, the loser of Mark Munoz vs CB Dollaway.

Thiago Silva def. Brandon Vera via Decision (unanimous), Rd 3
Prediction: Silva would stay aggressive and go for the kill, landing the more effective strikes and controlling the ground portions of the fight for a close decision win.
What Happened: Vera showed a definite advantage standing up throughout most of the fight, but unfortunately for him he spent the majority of the fight underneath Silva, who bullied and completely shut Vera down with potent ground and pound and superior strength and positioning. To seal the deal, Silva spent most of the 3rd round riding Vera's back while landing several punches, slaps, forearm strikes, and even took some time to drum on Vera's back and punch him in the backside. Oh, and in the process managed to completely destroy Vera's nose.
Thoughts: Thiago Silva is back. After fighting a while with an injured back, he finally showed why he was such a feared contender before running into Lyoto Machida. With a healthy back he was able to demonstrate his physical dominance and excellent ground game to make Vera, a seasoned veteran, look like an amateur on the mat. Vera's extensive Greco Roman skills looked nonexistant as Silva was able to bully him in the clinch and forcefully take him to the ground (something Randy Couture couldn't even manage). Silva made it looked easy, and clowned and embarrassed Vera in the process. That wasn't a fight, that was 3 rounds of rape.
Next for Silva: Phil Davis would be a perfect opponent for him. He's on fire right now, will have the wrestling advantage (and Silva the striking advantage) and the fight give great insight as to where they both belong in the rankings. Otherwise, the winner of Forrest Griffin vs Rich Franklin would make a fine choice.
Next for Vera: I suspect that Vera will be cut after yet another disappointing performance. He has been hot-and-cold most of his career and I think the UFC brass may have grown tired of him never reaching his potential. If he sticks around, Tim Boetsch may be a good person to show where he really is in the division.

Dong Hyun Kim def. Nate Diaz via Decision (unanimous), Rd 3
PredictionNate Diaz has always had trouble with physically strong guys that have good takedowns and can avoid submissions while controlling the action on the ground. Kim is one of those guys. Kim via close decision.
What Happened: I was pretty spot on with that one. Diaz did well standing up in the fight (especially in the 3rd), but the fact remains that he is able to be taken down almost at will, and adding good submission defense all but guarantees he'll drop a competitive decision.
Thoughts: If you know me you know I can't stand Nate Diaz (I'm warming up to Nick a bit, but I'm still not a fan). I was happy seeing him once again get stifled by a good wrestler, though I would be tickled pink if someone actually managed to finish him. You'd think that with the way a lot of his fights go he'd be seriously drilling some defensive wrestling. Kim showed decent standup but definitely still needs to sharpen up that area of his game if he wants to go further in the division.
Next for Kim: He says he wants GSP, but at this point he's definitely not ready. It'd be interesting to see how his strength and grappling match up with GSP's but with the standup deficit, GSP may not even need to seek takedowns. The winner of Diego Sanches vs Martin Kampmann (thanks Sherdog) would be a good barometer of where he is in the division. Paulo Thiago may also be a solid matchup for him, even if he is coming off of two losses.
Next for Diaz: He needs to go back to 155. I still don't know why he thought he'd set 170 on fire when he can't even get past the good wrestlers at 155. Both divisions are ruled by great wrestlers, so maybe he should fatten up and go to 185 if he wants to avoid them. If he stays at 170, maybe he should get Paulo Thiago or John Howard. If he moves back down, Tyson Griffin or Takanori Gomi could be good opponents.

Clay Guida def. Takanori Gomi via Submission (guillotine choke), Rd 2
Prediction: Gomi would have the tools to wear down and beat Gomi, but is so prone to getting wreckless on the feet that Gomi would tag him and end his night in round 1 or 2. However, that is if Guida doesn't fight smart. A smart Guida could decision Gomi or score a late sub.
What Happened: Guida fought smart. He used his high energy level to move unpredictably in all directions and employ constant head movement. The result was highly confusing and frustrating for Gomi, who even got tagged a few times by Guida's spontaneous striking. Gomi did land a few good shots, but one knee to the body was proved a big mistake, as it allowed Guida to take him down and lock in a fight-ending guillotine.
Thoughts: I guess the Gomi hope train is derailed yet again, and it's sad to see. His susceptibility to submissions is what got him once again this time around, but Guida's frantic pace and confusing movement clearly left Gomi scratching his head, as he could not find his rhythm or his range. However, Guida's stock went way up, and he seems to be enjoying an evolution in his mental game at this point.
Next for Guida: Guida has won 3 straight and looked impressive along the way. His current resurgence has earned him a look at becoming a contender. Ben Henderson would make for an amazing fight between two guys with great wrestling, great chins, and no off-button. Potential fight of the year material if you ask me. Otherwise, a fight with Sean Sherk may also make sense and will show how well Guida holds up against another great wrestler.
Next for Gomi: I take it he gets one more chance to make an impact, and why not against someone else who has their back against the wall and likes to slug? Paul Taylor fits this mold. The fight would surely be fireworks, and should show if Gomi really is done being considered a viable contender. A fight against Nate Diaz would also make for a good story, considering Gomi had an epic battle with his brother Nick that ended with Gomi tapping to a gogoplata late in the fight, only to have the result declared a no contest later on due to Diaz's "herbal self medication." Nate has an iron jaw, great submissions, and is prone to getting into brawls on the feet just like Nick, so the fight could prove to be as epic.

The Prelims
- Marcus Davis looked very solid for his debut at 155 for two rounds. Then he ran into Jeremy Stephens' fist and was knocked unconscious. Davis actually staggered Stephens with a punch in the 1st, but chose to run in and clinch instead trying to go for the finish. As soon as it happened I said he'd regret it because it will probably cost him the fight. Turns out I was right.
- In one of the big shockers of the night, Dustin Poirer thoroughly dominated almost-featherweight title challenger Josh Grispi on the feet and shut down his submission skills on the ground en route to a dominant decision. Jose Aldo's injury may have been a blessing for Grispi because judging from this fight Aldo would have annihilated him if he got that title shot.
- Not surprisingly, Phil Baroni lost to Brad Tavares. The shocker was that he was TKO'd in round 1 after nearly finishing Tavares early on. Baroni can take a ton of damage so you figure if he was going to be stopped it'd be after the first round, where he typically gasses. Baroni will surely be cut now, at just 3-7 in the UFC.
- Diego Nunes took home a close split decision over former champ Mike Brown. Tough fight to predict but I called it, saying that Brown would start off strong but be unable to finish, and Nunes would use his speed and striking to take rounds 2 and 3. The featherweight division seems to have passed Brown by, and he has alternated wins and losses in his last 6. Nunes' stock continues to rise, and he may soon have to make the choice of whether or not to fight Nova Uniao teammate and UFC Featherweight champ Jose Aldo.
- Daniel Roberts survived an early scare to pull off a beautiful kimura submission over of Greg Soto in the 1st round. As soon as Soto's arm was available, Roberts grabbed a hold of it and impressively locked in the submission in lightning quick fashion. Roberts can be a major player at 170 if he works on his standup, and for the record, this should have been award Submission of the Night.
- After loads upon loads of trash talk and self promoting Antonio McKee lost his promotional debut, dropping an uneventful and at times dreadful to watch split decision to Jacob Volkmann. McKee sees a 15 fight, almost 8 year unbeaten streak come to an end, while Volkmann has now won his 3rd straight since dropping down to lightweight. It's quite ironic to see that after so much talk from McKee about how being derided for grinding out decisions by critics has brought out a monster in him who will violently run through everyone he faces, he loses this fight by being outwrestled and grinded down by a guy he was supposed to outwrestle. Kinda funny.

Whew! Okay, that does it. It was a very good event overall, which makes me even more excited for what is to come in 2011. I'll be writing back soon with recaps of the J-MMA year-end events, but until then good fight and good night!